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The Conflict Process

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Irving Lichbach

    (Department of Political Science University of Illinois at Chicago Circle)

  • Ted Robert Gurr

    (Department of Political Science Northwestern University)

Abstract

This article proposes and tests a self-generative theory of conflict processes within nations. We dissect the "conflict breeds conflict" truism into three hypotheses: (1) the present extent of conflict simultaneously determines its intensity, while the present intensity of conflict determines its future extent; (2) the present extent of protest determines the present extent of rebellion and vice versa; and (3) the extent and intensity of both protest and rebellion persist over time. Our principal findings are: (1) man-days of protest is a weak positive and linear function of simultaneous man-days of rebellion and lagged man-days of protest; (2) deaths from protest is a strong curvilinear function of simultaneous man-days of protest; (3) man-days of rebellion is a weak positive and linear function of simultaneous man-days of protest and lagged man-days of rebellion, and a U-shaped function of lagged deaths from rebellion; (4) deaths from rebellion is a strong exponential function of present man-days of rebellion, and a linear and positive function of lagged deaths from protest and from rebellion. We conclude that the self-generative model provides a less-than-sufficient explanation of variations in internal conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Irving Lichbach & Ted Robert Gurr, 1981. "The Conflict Process," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(1), pages 3-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:25:y:1981:i:1:p:3-29
    DOI: 10.1177/002200278102500101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
    2. Ekkart Zimmermann, 1976. "Factor analyses of conflicts within and between nations: A critical evaluation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 267-296, December.
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