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Choosing the European Fiscal Rule

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  • Bušs, Ginters
  • Grüning, Patrick
  • Tkačevs, Oļegs

Abstract

In order to contribute to the ongoing discussions at the European Union level about the potential simplification of its fiscal framework, we evaluate the economic and public finance stabilization properties of two benchmark fiscal rules using a New Keynesian small open economy model. If these fiscal rules are implemented one at a time, having just an expenditure growth rule tends to yield more stable macroeconomic outcomes but more volatile public finances, as compared to having only a structural balance rule. Much of the quantitative differences in relative volatilities can be accounted for by using a modified public expenditure definition in the expenditure growth rule, in particular the removal of debt service payments. Strong-enough debt correction for either fiscal rule contains public debt volatility at little expense to long-run macroeconomic stability. There is also a welfare gain for households from having only an expenditure growth rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Bušs, Ginters & Grüning, Patrick & Tkačevs, Oļegs, 2022. "Choosing the European Fiscal Rule," Dynare Working Papers 75, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:075
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; DSGE; Small open economy; Fiscal-monetary policy interaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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