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Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Günther Fink

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Jocelyn Finlay

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

High ratios of working age to dependent population can yield a increases the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 inclusion of age structure improves the model’s forecasts for the period that including age structure improves the forecast, although there instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000–2020.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2006. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," PGDA Working Papers 2006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; demography; forecast; evaluation; error decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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