IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v57y2010i2p366-406.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Andrew Swiston

Abstract

This paper explores international bond spillovers using daily and weekly data on yields on inflation-indexed bonds and associated inflation expectations for the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The analysis starts in 2002, by which point U.S. inflation-indexed markets had matured. Real bond yields are found to be closely linked across countries, with developments in U.S. markets determining around half of real foreign yields and no evidence of spillovers back to the United States. Spillovers in inflation expectations are smaller and the direction of causation is less clear.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2010. "The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 366-406, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:366-406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v57/n2/pdf/imfsp200913a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v57/n2/full/imfsp200913a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:309-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
    4. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "International linkages and macroeconomic news effects on interest rate volatility -- Australia and the US," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-113, March.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
    6. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    8. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    9. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    10. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    11. Fair, Ray C., 2003. "Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 307-341, June.
    12. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Gupta, Manoj, 1990. "The Intertemporal Relation between the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1297-1306, September.
    15. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    16. Breedon, Francis & Henry, Brian & Williams, Geoffrey, 1999. "Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence on the Global Capital Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 128-142, Summer.
    17. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 1994. "Real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 107-124, February.
    18. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    19. repec:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:1:p:127-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    21. Helge Bremnes & Oystein Gjerde & Frode Sattem, 2001. "Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-145, March.
    22. Gagnon, Joseph E & Unferth, Mark D, 1995. "Is there a world real interest rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 845-855, December.
    23. Pu Shen, 2006. "Liquidity risk premia and breakeven inflation rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 91(Q II), pages 29-54.
    24. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    25. Rohan Christie‐David & Mukesh Chaudhry & Walayet Khan, 2002. "News Releases, Market Integration, and Market Leadership," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 223-245, June.
    26. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
    27. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2006. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations When No Monetary Policy Changes Occur?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1641-1657, September.
    28. Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
    2. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    4. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Trung T Bui, 2012. "Global Bonding: Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2012/298, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Steven B. Kamin, 2010. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    2. Steven B. Kamin, 2010. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    4. Jana Riedel, 2020. "On real interest rate convergence among G7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 599-626, August.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Jan Roestel, 2011. "Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1523-1541, October.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States," Working Paper Series 342, European Central Bank.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
    8. Dreger, Christian, 2010. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 274-285.
    9. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 718-727, September.
    10. Amornthum, Somchai & Bonham, Carl S., 2011. "Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1019-1033, October.
    11. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriele M. Lepori, 2022. "Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2371, May.
    12. repec:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:1-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fischer, Andreas M. & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2011. "Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2965-2973, November.
    14. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
    15. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    16. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. You, Zhongyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Guney, Selin, 2023. "A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 215-229.
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & Romain Lafarguette & Arnaud Mehl, 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 1914, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    20. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    21. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:366-406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.