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Assessing the Effects of Terrorism on Tourism by Use of Time Series Methods

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  • Brian W. Sloboda

    (US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 400 Seventh Street, SW (Room 3430), Washington, DC 20590, USA)

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of terrorism on tourism by using time series methods, namely the ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables) model. This is a single-equation approach, which has the ability to provide impact analysis easily. The use of the ARMAX model allows for the general shape of the lag distribution of the impacts of the explanatory variables based on the ratio of lag polynomials for the independent and dependent variables. The ARMAX models, like the ARIMA models, provide for a short-term assessment of terrorist incidents on tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian W. Sloboda, 2003. "Assessing the Effects of Terrorism on Tourism by Use of Time Series Methods," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 179-190, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:9:y:2003:i:2:p:179-190
    DOI: 10.5367/000000003101298349
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    1. Stelios Markoulis, 2021. "Do Terror Attacks Affect the Euro? Evidence from the 21st Century," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2016. "Terrorist attack assessment: Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 553-571.
    4. Dawood Mamoon, 2014. "How a Terrorist Attack Accounts for Trade Deficit in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(12), pages 517-527, December.
    5. Jamil Shah & Zilakat Khan Malik & Umar Hayat, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-Integration Approach," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 44-57.
    6. Marion Karl & Gordon Winder & Alexander Bauer, 2017. "Terrorism and tourism in Israel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 1343-1352, September.
    7. Jauhar Abbas & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Haroon Hussain & Rana Yassir Hussain & Muhammad Saad & Masud Akhtar, 2021. "Stock Market Reaction towards Terrorism: An Evidence Based on Seasonal Variation in Pakistan," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 167-177.
    8. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Economics Study Area Working Papers 87, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    9. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    10. Jamil Shah & Zilakat Khan Malik & Umar Hayat, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-Integration Approach," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-14.
    11. Carlos Pestana Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation of Radical Islamic Terrorism in Europe and North America," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(2), pages 298-314, April.
    12. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Passos, Jose & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2006. "The timing of ETA terrorist attacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 335-346, April.
    13. Lakdawalla, Darius & Zanjani, George, 2005. "Insurance, self-protection, and the economics of terrorism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1891-1905, September.
    14. Tekin Kose & Julide Yildirim & Gizem Tanrivere, 2017. "The Effects of Terrorism on Happiness: Evidence from Turkey," EcoMod2017 10229, EcoMod.
    15. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

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