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The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhard Neck

    (Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt)

  • Friedrich Schneider

    (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz)

Abstract

In this paper we apply the unit root and cointegration methodology as well as other methods of modern econometric time series analysis to estimate popularity functions for the Austrian parties in power since the mid-1970s. We find only very rare evidence for economic variables influencing the popularity of the main political parties in the federal government, thereby challenging previous studies that claimed to have established such influences. When considering the determinants of the popularity of the incumbent party (the sum of the popularities of the parties in government), the unemployment rate turns out to have a negative short-run influence. The robustness of this result is checked by various methods, demonstrating the usefulness of the applied methodology to clarify such issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:31:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10797-023-09802-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-023-09802-z
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austrian popularity function; Economic influence on popularity; Spurious regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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