IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/y364t.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Goutsmedt, Aurélien

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Lucas and Sargent’s “After Keynesian Macroeconomics” is considered as a cornerstone of macroeconomics history and is supposed to have seriously undermined “Keynesian” approach to macroeconometric modelling. I study the context of this article, its writing, its presentation in a conference with many advocates of large-scale models and the debates that followed. I demonstrate that the issue of stagflation was closely linked to Lucas and Sargent’s argument, and the opposition of “Keynesians” relied on their different interpretation of stagflation. I show this interpretation of stagflation led to a different research program, which has been overlooked by history of macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

  • Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2019. "Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs," OSF Preprints y364t, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:y364t
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/y364t
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5c77446f8d5d98001b380129/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/y364t?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2013. "The Great Inflation Drift," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 181-209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Thomas Sargent face à Robert Lucas : une autre ambition pour la Nouvelle Economie Classique," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. De Vroey,Michel, 2016. "A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898430, September.
    4. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2013. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1470 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robert Shimer, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 280-297, January.
    8. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2013. "The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 393-438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-1660, December.
    10. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich & Sergi, Francesco & Renault, Matthieu, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," OSF Preprints qxh46, Center for Open Science.
    11. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2018. "The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s," SocArXiv vdy2z, Center for Open Science.
    12. Edward J. Nell & Karim Errouaki, 2013. "Rational Econometric Man," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13976.
    13. Andrew Levin & John B. Taylor, 2013. "Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 217-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thomas J. Sargent, 2013. "Rational Expectations and Inflation (Third Edition)," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 10000.
    15. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Danielle Guizzo & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "An Agenda without a Plan. Robert E. Lucas’s Trajectory through the Public Debate [Un programme sans plan. La trajectoire de Robert E. Lucas à travers le débat public]," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03228955, HAL.
    16. Ronald G. Bodkin & Lawrence R. Klein & Kanta Marwah, 1991. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 51.
    17. T. Muench & A. Rolnick & N. Wallace & W. Weiler, 1974. "Tests for Structural Change and Prediction Intervals for the Reduced Forms of Two Structural Models of the US: The FRB-MIT and Michigan Quarterly Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 3, pages 491-519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    19. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519944 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:1:p:33-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brian Snowdon & Howard Vane, 1998. "Transforming macroeconomics: an interview with Robert E. Lucas Jr," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 115-146.
    22. Cherrier, Beatrice & Backhouse, Roger, 2018. "The ordinary business of macroeconometric modeling: working on the Fed-MIT-Penn model (1964-1974)," SocArXiv 39xkz, Center for Open Science.
    23. Qin, Duo, 2013. "A History of Econometrics: The Reformation from the 1970s," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199679348.
    24. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
    25. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    26. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2005. "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033305, April.
    27. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco & Cherrier, Beatrice & Claveau, François & Fontan, Clément & Acosta, Juan, 2023. "To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," SocArXiv m2cet, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Post-Print halshs-01625188, HAL.
    2. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich & Sergi, Francesco & Renault, Matthieu, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," OSF Preprints qxh46, Center for Open Science.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Danielle Guizzo & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "An Agenda without a Plan. Robert E. Lucas’s Trajectory through the Public Debate [Un programme sans plan. La trajectoire de Robert E. Lucas à travers le débat public]," Post-Print hal-03228955, HAL.
    4. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    5. Robert E. Lucas & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Spr).
    6. Michel De Vroey, 2012. "Microfoundations: A Decisive Dividing Line between Keynesian and New Classical Macroeconomics?," Chapters, in: Microfoundations Reconsidered, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.
    8. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Truc, Alexandre, 2023. "An independent European macroeconomics? A history of European macroeconomics through the lens of the European Economic Review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Cléo Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, 2023. "Modeling intervention: The Political element in Barbara Bergmann's micro-to-macro simulation projects," Working Papers hal-04208686, HAL.
    10. Romain Plassard, 2019. "From Disequilibrium to Equilibrium Macroeconomics: Barro and Grossman's Trade-off between Rigor and Realism," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-17, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    11. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    12. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2012. "Not Going Away? Microfoundations in the Making of a New Consensus in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Microfoundations Reconsidered, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, December.
    14. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
    15. Plassard, Romain, 2021. "Barro, Grossman, and the domination of equilibrium macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 107201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Preston J. Miller & Arthur J. Rolnick, 1979. "The CBO's policy analysis: an unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory," Staff Report 49, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Hugo Chu Chun Wei, 2018. "Representative Agent, Rational Expectations, And General Equilibrium Theory In Lucas?S Theoretical Framework: Some Considerations," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 9, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996. "The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401.
    19. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.
    20. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:y364t. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.