IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jhu/papers/391.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Input and Output Inventories

Author

Listed:
  • Brad R Humphreys
  • Louis J Maccini
  • Scott Schuh

Abstract

This paper presents a new stage-of-fabrication inventory model with ordering usage and stocking of input materials under gross production or value added technology The model extends the traditional linear-quadratic model of output (finished goods) inventories and yields joint decision rules for input and output inventories with extensive dynamic stage-of-fabrication linkages Data show that input inventories are more important than output inventories in business cycle fluctuations Maximum likelihood estimation is relatively successful for a structural inventory model in nondurable and durable good industries The results include evidence of convex costs input-inventory-saving technology and insensitivity to production technology specification

Suggested Citation

  • Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and Output Inventories," Economics Working Paper Archive 391, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    2. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    4. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    5. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    6. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    7. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    8. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    9. Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995. "Measuring noise in inventory models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
    10. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
    11. Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    13. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    14. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1993. "Some Evidence on Finite Sample Behavior of an Instrumental Variables Estimator of the Linear Quadtratic Inventory Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June.
    17. James A. Kahn, 1992. "Why is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 481-510.
    18. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-581, June.
    19. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Chambers,Robert G., 1988. "Applied Production Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314275.
    21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    22. Alan J. Auerbach & Jerry R. Green, 1980. "Components of Manufacturing Inventories," NBER Working Papers 0491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
    24. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    25. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-354, June.
    26. Reagan, Patricia & Sheehan, Dennis P., 1985. "The stylized facts about the behavior of manufacturers' inventories and backorders over the business cycle: 1959-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-246, March.
    27. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
    29. Haltiwanger, John C. & Maccini, Louis J., 1989. "Inventories, orders, temporary and permanent layoffs: An econometric analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 301-366, January.
    30. Rossana, Robert J, 1990. "Interrelated Demands for Buffer Stocks and Productive Inputs: Estimates for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 19-29, February.
    31. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    32. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "Order Backlogs and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Michael C. Lovell, 1962. "Inventory Investment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 131, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    34. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-236, May.
    35. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
    36. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
    37. Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-334, April.
    38. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    39. Martin Feldstein & Alan Auerbach, 1976. "Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 351-408.
    40. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 593-624.
    41. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-469, June.
    42. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. West, Kenneth D., 1983. "A note on the econometric use of constant dollar inventory series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 337-341.
    44. Husted, Steven & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1987. "Linear Rational Expectations Equilibrium Laws of Motion for Selected U.S. Raw Material Imports," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 651-670, October.
    45. Bivin, David, 1993. "The influence of inventories on output and prices: A stage of fabrication approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-651.
    46. Martin Neil Baily, 1986. "Productivity Growth and Materials Use in U. S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(1), pages 185-195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    2. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1303-1327, December.
    3. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    4. Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995. "Measuring noise in inventory models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
    5. Galeotti, Marzio & Maccini, Louis J. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2005. "Inventories, employment and hours," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 575-600, April.
    6. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
    7. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December.
    8. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    9. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    10. Hall, George & Rust, John, 2000. "An empirical model of inventory investment by durable commodity intermediaries," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 171-214, June.
    11. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Humphreys, Brad R., 2001. "The behavior of manufacturers inventories: Evidence from US industry level data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 9-20, May.
    13. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    15. Wen, Yi, 2003. "The Power of Demand: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Multi-Stage-Fabrication Economy with Inventories," Working Papers 03-13r, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    16. Bivin, David, 1999. "A Model of the Production Lag and Work-in-Process Inventories," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-536, July.
    17. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    18. George J. Hall, 1996. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: a study of production and inventories at automobile assembly plants," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Wen, Yi, 2003. "Understanding the Inventory Cycle: I. Partial Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 03-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    20. Yi Wen, 2005. "The multiplier: a general equilibrium analysis of multi-stage-fabrication economy with inventories," Working Papers 2005-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Humphrey Muturi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dejhuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.