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Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models

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  • Ray Fair

Abstract

This paper outlines a bootstrapping approach to the estimation and analysis of macroeconometric models. It integrates for dynamic, nonlinear, simultaneous equation models the bootstrapping approach to evaluating estimators initiated by Efron (1979) and the stochastic simulation approach to evaluating models' properties initiated by Adelman and Adelman (1959). It also estimates for a particular model the gain in coverage accuracy from using bootstrap confidence intervals over asymptotic confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Fair, 2002. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm254, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm254
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    File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. repec:sae:niesru:v:164:y::i:1:p:90-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    4. Yoel Haitovsky & Neil Wallace, 1972. "A Study of Discretionary and Nondiscretionary Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Context of Stochastic Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today, pages 261-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael K. Evans & Lawrence R. Klein & Mitsuo Saito & Michael D. McCarthy, 1972. "Short-Run Prediction and Long-Run Simulation of the Wharton Model," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 139-200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589819, September.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-378, June.
    8. Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1977. "Stochastic simulation as a validation tool for econometric models," MPRA Paper 21226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1976. "Divergences in the results of stochastic and deterministic simulation of an Italian non linear econometric model," MPRA Paper 21287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
    11. Gary Fromm & Lawrence R. Klein & George R. Schink, 1972. "Short- and Long-Term Simulations with the Brookings Model," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 201-310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Härdle, Wolfgang & Horowitz, Joel L. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2001. "Bootstrap methods for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    13. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    14. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589833, September.
    15. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    16. T. Muench & A. Rolnick & N. Wallace & W. Weiler, 1974. "Tests for Structural Change and Prediction Intervals for the Reduced Forms of Two Structural Models of the US: The FRB-MIT and Michigan Quarterly Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 3, pages 491-519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    19. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    21. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-343, March.
    22. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 1996.
    23. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    24. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589826, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
    2. Fair, Ray C., 2021. "Trade models and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 296-302.
    3. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Jensen-Butler, Chris, 2013. "Estimation of the spatial weights matrix under structural constraints," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 617-634.
    4. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper 112.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
    6. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper 112, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrapping; Stochastic Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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