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Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe

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  • George Ward

Abstract

There is a growing interest among policy makers in the use of subjective well‐being (or “happiness”) data to measure societal progress, as well as to inform and evaluate public policy. Yet despite a sharp rise in the supply of well‐being‐based policymaking, it remains unclear whether there is any electoral demand for it. In this article, I study a long‐run panel of general elections in Europe and find that well‐being is a strong predictor of election results. National measures of subjective well‐being are able to explain more of the variance in governing party vote share than standard macroeconomic indicators typically used in the economic voting literature. Consistent results are found at the individual level when considering subjective well‐being and voting intentions, both in cross‐sectional and panel analyses.

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  • George Ward, 2020. "Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 504-518, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:64:y:2020:i:3:p:504-518
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12492
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    2. Clark, Andrew E. & Cotofan, Maria, 2023. "Are the Upwardly-Mobile More Left-Wing?," IZA Discussion Papers 16290, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "Pandemic Policy and Life Satisfaction in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Richard Layard, 2024. "Wellbeing," CEP Election Analysis Papers 063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Lepinteur, Anthony & Clark, Andrew E. & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Piper, Alan & Schröder, Carsten & D'Ambrosio, Conchita, 2022. "Gender, loneliness and happiness during COVID-19," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Andrew E. Clark, 2021. "Demography and well-being," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 19(1), pages 23-28.
    7. Ken Ka-wo Fung & Chao-Lung Liu & Ming-Lun Chung, 2022. "Bowling Alone in Taiwan? Political Trust and Civic Participation of Taiwanese and Their Appraisal of Liberal Democracy and Personal Wellbeing," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 1085-1102, February.
    8. David Frayman & Christian Krekel & Richard Layard & Sara MacLennan & Isaac Parkes, 2024. "Value for money: How to improve wellbeing and reduce misery," CEP Reports 44, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. David G. Blanchflower & Alex Bryson, 2021. "Biden, COVID and Mental Health in America," DoQSS Working Papers 21-21, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    10. Jason Wei Jian Ng & Santha Vaithilingam & Grace H. Y. Lee & Gary J. Rangel, 2022. "Life Satisfaction and Incumbent Voting: Examining the Mediating Effect of Trust in Government," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 2947-2967, August.
    11. Sumit S. Deole & Yue Huang, 2024. "Suffering and prejudice: do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-39, June.
    12. Strezhnev, Anton, 2024. "Group-specific linear trends and the triple-differences in time design," SocArXiv dg5ps, Center for Open Science.
    13. Marijana Andrijić & Tajana Barbić, 2021. "When the Going Gets Tough … the Effect of Economic Reform Programmes on National Well-Being," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Krekel, Christian & MacKerron, George, 2023. "Back to Edgeworth? Estimating the Value of Time Using Hedonic Experiences," IZA Discussion Papers 16308, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    16. Swee, Eik Leong & Zhan, Haikun & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "Do perceptions of economic well-being predict the onset of war and peace?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Frijters, Paul & Krekel, Christian & Ulker, Aydogan, 2023. "Should bads be inflicted all at once, like Machiavelli said? Evidence from life-satisfaction data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1-27.
    18. Silva, Rui, 2024. "Well-being foundations of populism in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Antonino Callea & Dalila De Rosa & Giovanni Ferri & Francesca Lipari & Marco Costanzi, 2022. "Can Emotional Intelligence promote Individual Wellbeing and protect from perceptions' traps?," CERBE Working Papers wpC39, CERBE Center for Relationship Banking and Economics.
    20. Krekel, Christian & Swanke, Sarah & De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel & Fancourt, Daisy, 2020. "Are Happier People More Compliant? Global Evidence From Three Large-Scale Surveys During Covid-19 Lockdowns," IZA Discussion Papers 13690, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Filiztekin, Alpay & Kent, Oya, 2023. "Subjective well-being, satisfaction with public services and election outcomes in Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    22. Schreiner, Nicolas, 2021. "Changes in Well-Being Around Elections," Working papers 2021/03, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

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