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Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market

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  • Raymond Tse
  • C. W. Ho
  • S. Ganesan

Abstract

This paper has the objective of improving on the issue of forecasting new housing construction, and highlights differences between space demand and investment demand in housing markets. Further, it indicates how these differences will affect construction decisions. The first step is to identify the factors associated with estimating residential property prices in Hong Kong, based on a demand-supply adjustment process. Specifically, this study examines the role of population growth, transaction volume, inflation and interest rate in determining house prices. Second, based on these estimations, a methodology is developed to estimate the investment demand schedule and new construction of residential property.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Tse & C. W. Ho & S. Ganesan, 1999. "Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 625-633.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:17:y:1999:i:5:p:625-633
    DOI: 10.1080/014461999371231
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    Cited by:

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    3. Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2014. "The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply," MPRA Paper 60478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Jorgen Lauridsen, 2008. "Disparities in Prices and Income across German NUTS 3 Regions," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(2), pages 123-141.
    6. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2018. "Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 91-110.
    8. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Papers 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    10. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, chapter 11, pages 5-38, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Henry Hsieh, 2005. "The 1990s Taiwan residential construction boom: a supply side interpretation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 265-284.
    12. Ivan D. Trofimov Nazaria Md. Aris Dickson C. D. Xuan, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 71-96, November.
    13. Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demand–Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444.
    14. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & C. D. Xuan, Dickson, 2018. "Macroeconomic and demographic determinants of residential property prices in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 85819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ke Wang & Jianjun Zhang & Wenhua Guo & Zhen Liu & Ze Xu, 2023. "A Perception and Judgement of Contributing Factors for Allocating Urban Residential Land: A Systematic Review and Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Abuzer Pinar & Murat Demir, 2016. "The Impact of Social Housing Program on the Demand for Housing in Turkey: A Cross-Section Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 20-28, November.
    17. Xin Janet Ge & Brendan Williams, 2015. "House Price Determinants in Sydney," ERES eres2015_230, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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