IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v17y1999i5p625-633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market

Author

Listed:
  • Raymond Tse
  • C. W. Ho
  • S. Ganesan

Abstract

This paper has the objective of improving on the issue of forecasting new housing construction, and highlights differences between space demand and investment demand in housing markets. Further, it indicates how these differences will affect construction decisions. The first step is to identify the factors associated with estimating residential property prices in Hong Kong, based on a demand-supply adjustment process. Specifically, this study examines the role of population growth, transaction volume, inflation and interest rate in determining house prices. Second, based on these estimations, a methodology is developed to estimate the investment demand schedule and new construction of residential property.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Tse & C. W. Ho & S. Ganesan, 1999. "Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 625-633.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:17:y:1999:i:5:p:625-633
    DOI: 10.1080/014461999371231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/014461999371231
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/014461999371231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Potepan, Michael J., 1994. "Intermetropolitan Migration and Housing Prices: Simultaneously Determined?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 77-91, June.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Reichert, Alan K, 1990. "The Impact of Interest Rates, Income, and Employment upon Regional Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 373-391, December.
    4. Springer, Thomas M, 1996. "Single-Family Housing Transactions: Seller Motivations, Price, and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-254, November.
    5. Raymond Tse & Sivaguru Ganesan, 1997. "Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 371-376.
    6. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    8. Duncan Maclennan & Gwilym Pryce, 1996. "Global Economic Change, Labour Market Adjustment and the Challenges for European Housing Policies," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(10), pages 1849-1865, December.
    9. McIntosh, Willard & Henderson, Glenn V, Jr, 1989. "Efficiency of the Office Properties Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 61-70, February.
    10. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
    11. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
    2. Hanna Augustyniak & Laszek Jacek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects," NBP Working Papers 143, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2014. "The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply," MPRA Paper 60478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dreger Christian & Kosfeld Reinhold, 2010. "Do Regional Price Levels Converge?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 274-286, June.
    5. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Jorgen Lauridsen, 2008. "Disparities in Prices and Income across German NUTS 3 Regions," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(2), pages 123-141.
    6. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2018. "Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 91-110.
    8. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Papers 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Charles K. Leung & Kelvin S. Wong, 2004. "The Construction and Related Industries in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 139-170.
    10. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, chapter 11, pages 5-38, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Henry Hsieh, 2005. "The 1990s Taiwan residential construction boom: a supply side interpretation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 265-284.
    12. Ivan D. Trofimov Nazaria Md. Aris Dickson C. D. Xuan, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 71-96, November.
    13. Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demand–Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444.
    14. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & C. D. Xuan, Dickson, 2018. "Macroeconomic and demographic determinants of residential property prices in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 85819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ke Wang & Jianjun Zhang & Wenhua Guo & Zhen Liu & Ze Xu, 2023. "A Perception and Judgement of Contributing Factors for Allocating Urban Residential Land: A Systematic Review and Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Abuzer Pinar & Murat Demir, 2016. "The Impact of Social Housing Program on the Demand for Housing in Turkey: A Cross-Section Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 20-28, November.
    17. Xin Janet Ge & Brendan Williams, 2015. "House Price Determinants in Sydney," ERES eres2015_230, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    2. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    3. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Institute for Multilevel Governance and Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    6. Yongsheng Jiang & Dong Zhao & Andrew Sanderford & Jing Du, 2018. "Effects of Bank Lending on Urban Housing Prices for Sustainable Development: A Panel Analysis of Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    8. Richard K. Green & Patric Hendershott, 1992. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 92-08, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    9. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Inflation and the price of real assets," Staff Report 423, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. John M. Quigley, 1999. "Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20.
    11. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    12. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    13. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    14. Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp296, Financial Markets Group.
    15. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    16. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    17. Mary Riddel, 2001. "A Dynamic Approach to Estimating Hedonic Prices for Environmental Goods: An Application to Open Space Purchase," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(4), pages 494-512.
    18. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.
    19. Andrew A. Alola & Simplice A. Asongu & Uju V. Alola, 2019. "House prices and tourism development in Cyprus: A contemporary perspective," Working Papers 19/067, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    20. Piazzesi, Monika & Leombroni, Matteo & Rogers, Ciaran & Schneider, Martin, 2020. "Inflation and the Price of Real Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:17:y:1999:i:5:p:625-633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.