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Dynamics of Political Budget Cycle

Author

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  • Manjhi, Ganesh

    (Gargi College, Delhi University)

  • Mehra, Meeta Keswani

    (Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University)

Abstract

Using the method of optimal control, when an incumbent politician derives utility from voting support and dis-utility from budgetary deficit, the equilibrium time paths of both voting support and budgetary deficit are characterized in a finite time horizon under complete information. The incumbent politician may be an opportunist, in that she/ he is interested in garnering votes for herself/ himself, and manipulates budgetary deficit to achieve this, or else she/ he may be partisan, that is, characterized by heterogeneous preferences, reflecting preferences for specific economic policies. The citizen-voters vote for the opportunist as well as the partisan incumbent. However, they reject the same when there is a sufficiently strong anti-incumbency in the opportunist case. The level of voting support obtained in case of both opportunist and partisan is found to be positive and rising over time, but running the budgetary deficit will be costlier for the economy in the former case than the latter. That is, per unit votes garnered by raising the budgetary deficit as compared to the benchmark deficit are lower when the incumbent is an opportunist than when she/ he is partisan.

Suggested Citation

  • Manjhi, Ganesh & Mehra, Meeta Keswani, 2016. "Dynamics of Political Budget Cycle," Working Papers 16/163, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/163
    Note: Working Paper 163, 2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Opportunist Incumbent ; Partisan Incumbent ; Citizen Voters ; Budgetary Deficit ; Political Economy ; Political Budget Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Anti-incumbency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance

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