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An Application Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis In The U.S. Beekeeping Industry

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  • Willett, Lois Schertz

Abstract

A national beekeeping-industry model, assuming rational expectations, is presented. Consistent and asymptotically efficient estimates are obtained by a modified two-step two-stage least squares method. Based on parameter estimates, elasticities, and likelihood functions, a previously estimated modified adaptive expectations model explains industry behavior better than the rational expectations model. Simulation analyses of the models suggest the direction of the impacts of an ineffective federal honey support program from 1982 through 1985 is similar but the magnitudes are varied. The rational expectations model indicates the decrease in beekeepers' revenue in this period is larger than the decrease identified by the modified adaptive expectations model.

Suggested Citation

  • Willett, Lois Schertz, 1991. "An Application Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis In The U.S. Beekeeping Industry," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nejare:29019
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.29019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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