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Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks

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  • Masami Imai
  • Cameron Shelton
  • Rosa Hayes

Abstract

This paper exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990-2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home-grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters "all conditions which have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problem" do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Masami Imai & Cameron Shelton & Rosa Hayes, 2014. "Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks," Working Papers e073, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e73
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    4. Tolga Aksoy, 2016. "The Political Economy Of Structural Reforms," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 25-69, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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