Forecasting Federal Elections: New Data From 2010–2019 and a Discussion of Alternative and Emerging Methods
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12450
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Fair, Ray C, 1978.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006.
"Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 325-340, September.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 502, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 12053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfers, Justin & ,, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1972, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007.
"Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 1996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," Research Papers 1928, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 5591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," NBER Working Papers 12073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections," Working Paper Series 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Lisa Cameron & Mark Crosby, 2000. "It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 354-364, December.
- M. Galesic & W. Bruine de Bruin & M. Dumas & A. Kapteyn & J. E. Darling & E. Meijer, 2018. "Asking about social circles improves election predictions," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 187-193, March.
- David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2010. "Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 878-883, April.
- Nikolaos Stoupos & Apostolos Kiohos, 2021. "BREXIT referendum’s impact on the financial markets in the UK," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Lee A. Smales & Henk Berkman, 2016. "The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 545-575, June.
- Robert W. Hahn & Paul Tetlock, 2006. "Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51409, September.
- Will Jennings & Christopher Wlezien, 2018. "Election polling errors across time and space," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 276-283, April.
- David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2010. "Symposium - Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 878-883, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007.
"Consumer Confidence and Elections,"
Working Papers
0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006.
"Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 325-340, September.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 502, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Wolfers, Justin & ,, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1972, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 12053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:rim:rimwps:42-07 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andrew Leigh & Mark Mcleish, 2009.
"Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 210-222, June.
- Andrew Leigh & Mark McLeish, 2009. "Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 593, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Rajiv Sethi & Julie Seager & Emily Cai & Daniel M. Benjamin & Fred Morstatter, 2021. "Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections," Papers 2102.04936, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
- Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023.
"(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1468, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thiemo Fetzer & Ivan Yotzov, 2023. "(How) Do Electoral Surprises Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from a New Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10584, CESifo.
- Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 672, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006.
"Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice,"
NBER Working Papers
12083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," IZA Discussion Papers 1991, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020.
"Political Cycles and Stock Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013.
"Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687,
Elsevier.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CAMA Working Papers 2012-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 18222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 3884, CESifo.
- Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011.
"How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies,"
CAMA Working Papers
2011-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3434, CESifo.
- Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 5640, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," NBER Working Papers 16949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
- Nguyen, Phuc Lam Thy & Alsakka, Rasha & Mantovan, Noemi, 2023. "The impact of sovereign credit ratings on voters’ preferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
- Olsson, Henrik, 2021. "Election polling is not dead: A Bayesian bootstrap method yields accurate forecasts," OSF Preprints nqcgs, Center for Open Science.
- Nguyen, Phuc Lam Thy & Alsakka, Rasha & Mantovan, Noemi, 2023. "Political preferences and stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Andrew Leigh, 2009.
"Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, April.
- Andrew Leigh, 2004. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," CEPR Discussion Papers 485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Labonne, Julien, 2016. "Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 56-62.
- Abdoul Aziz NDIAYE & Birane DIOUF & Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE, 2022. "Les déterminants économiques du vote aux élections présidentielles dans les pays de l’UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 5-23.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 699-706, July.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:1:p:25-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.