IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/268.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Negra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales

Author

Listed:
  • Martha Misas
  • Enrique López
  • Carlos Arango
  • Juan Nicolás Hernández

Abstract

En el caso colombiano la tarea de pronosticar el futuro comportamiento del efectivo se ha convertido en un verdadero reto ya que durante la última década la economía ha sufrido importantes trasformaciones que han traído consigo una mayor volatilidad en las variables que lo determinan. En particular, recientemente se ha dado una fuerte reducción en la rentabilidad de activos alternativos al efectivo debido a la reducción en la tasa de inflación y a la introducción del impuesto a las transacciones financieras. Al mismo tiempo, los ciclos de la actividad económica parecen ser más pronunciados. Estos cambios cobran especial relevancia en la medida en que la demanda de dinero esté asociada en forma no lineal con sus determinantes. En este trabajo se explora esta posible relación no lineal y se explota la flexibilidad de las redes neuronales artificiales -ANN- para modelarla. Las ganancias en los errores de pronóstico y la significancia estadística de las pruebas de no linealidad frente a modelos de naturaleza lineal auguran un futuro promisorio a estas técnicas que permiten predecir mejor el futuro en un entorno cambiante.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & Enrique López & Carlos Arango & Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2003. "La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Negra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 268, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:268
    DOI: 10.32468/be.268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.268
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.268?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    2. Markose, Sheri M & Loke, Yiing Jia, 2002. "Can cash hold its own? International comparisons: Theory and evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 3734, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. Mervyn A. King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
    4. Luis E. Arango & Andrés González, 2000. "A Nonlinear Specification of Demand for Cash in Colombia," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 207-226, July-Dece.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, October.
    6. Malte Krueger & Charles Goodhart, 2001. "The Impact of Technology on Cash Usage," FMG Discussion Papers dp374, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, November.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    10. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "A Fallacy of Composition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1279-1292, December.
    11. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Multiproduct Firms, Product Differentiation, and Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    13. Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Staff Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada.
    14. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 189-209, July.
    15. Rech, Gianluigi, 2002. "Forecasting with artificial neural network models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 491, Stockholm School of Economics.
    16. Raimundo Soto, "undated". "Nonlinearities in the Demand for money: A Neural Network Approach," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv107, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    17. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:3:p:321-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-275, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3246, Banco de la Republica.
    2. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio A. & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 2006. "La demanda por dinero en Colombia: un poco más de evidencia en el período reciente," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, July.
    4. Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir Jalil Barney & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "¿Por qué ha crecido tanto la cantidad de dinero?: teoría y evidencia internacional (1975-2002)§," Borradores de Economia 402, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Carlos León & Fabio Ortega, 2018. "Nowcasting Economic Activity with Electronic Payments Data: A Predictive Modeling Approach," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(2), pages 381-407, December.
    6. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, 2009. "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2004:i:45:p:10-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
    3. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    4. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    5. Markose, Sheri M & Loke, Yiing Jia, 2002. "Can cash hold its own? International comparisons: Theory and evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 3734, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
    7. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Central banking and financial innovation. A survey of the modern literature," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 263-297.
    8. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Banca centrale e innovazione finanziaria. Una rassegna della letteratura recente," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(220), pages 345-385.
    9. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
    10. Valentina Grozdeva, 2006. "Electronic Money As Basis Of Payments At Electronic Banking: Development And Consequences," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 112-136.
    11. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Central banking and financial innovation. A survey of the modern literature," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 263-297.
    12. Korhonen, Tapio, 2001. "Finnish monetary and foreign exchange policy and the changeover to the euro," Research Discussion Papers 25/2001, Bank of Finland.
    13. Lahdenperä, Harri, 2001. "Payment and financial innovation, reserve demand and implementation of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2001, Bank of Finland.
    14. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small‐Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 315-335, March.
    15. Hervé Sitruk, 2008. "Monnaie électronique, monnaie fiduciaire et monnaie scripturale. Quelles substitutions ? Quelles stratégies ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 91(1), pages 37-51.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mr. Saleh M. Nsouli & Connel Fullenkamp, 2004. "Six Puzzles in Electronic Money and Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/019, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 273-286, July.
    19. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 413-457, Elsevier.
    20. Buiter, Willem H., 2006. "The elusive welfare economics of price stability as a monetary policy objective: why New Keynesian central bankers should validate core inflation," Working Paper Series 609, European Central Bank.
    21. Edgardo Barandiarán, 2000. "Chile Después del Peso: Viviendo con el Dólar," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 241-267.
    22. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.