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Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment

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  • Lawrence H. Goulder

Abstract

This paper employs a general equilibrium model to assess the effects of major components of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on the performance of housing and other industries. The model considers both short-term and long-term effects on housing demands, house values, and investment in housing. Model results indicate that in the short run, the recent cuts incorporate tax rates, elimination of investment tax credits, and scaling back of depreciation deductions together have negative implications for investment in non-residential capital but positive effects on housing investment. This mainly reflects the fact that prior to the '86 tax reforms, investment tax credits and favorable depreciation rules disproportionately benefited non-housing industries; thus their removal especially affects industries other than housing and helps ?crowd in housing investment. Over the long term, however, the tax changes imply lower investment in housing as well as in other types of capital. The reduced housing investment stems from adverse effects of the reforms on aggregate output and real income.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Goulder, 1989. "Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment," NBER Working Papers 2814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2814
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    1. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:88:y:1986:i:2:p:355-77 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea J. Heuson & Gary Painter, 2011. "The Impact of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 on Housing Turnover in the U.S. Single Family Residential Market," Working Paper 8509, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    2. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Thalmann, Philippe, 1993. "Approaches to efficient capital taxation : Leveling the playing field vs. living by the golden rule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 169-196, February.
    3. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    4. Zhicheng Zhou & Prapatchon Jariyapan, 2013. "The impact of macroeconomic policies to real estate market in People's Republic of China," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 75-92, September.
    5. John W. Diamond & George R. Zodrow, 2006. "Economic Effects of a Personal Capital Income Tax Add-On to a Consumption Tax," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0629, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    6. Hui An & Qianmiao Zou & Ying Zhang & Rakesh Gupta, 2019. "Property Prices: How Effective is a Property-Purchasing Limitation Policy for Managing Affordability?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 197-229.
    7. Okumura, Tsunao, 1997. "Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan: An Asset Market Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-54, March.
    8. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.
    9. Josep Maria Raya Vilchez & Aleksander Kucel, 2023. "How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 323-347, April.
    10. John Diamond, 2005. "Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(2), pages 165-192, March.
    11. Laurence S. Seidman & Kenneth A. Lewis, 1997. "The Design of a Tax Rule for Owner-Occuped Housing Under a Personal Consumption Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(1), pages 5-24, January.
    12. Skinner, Jonathan, 1989. "Housing wealth and aggregate saving," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 305-324, May.
    13. Anderson, John E. & Roy, Atrayee Ghosh, 2001. "Eliminating Housing Tax Preferences: A Distributional Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 41-58, March.
    14. Lawrence H. Goulder, 1993. "Energy Taxes: Traditional Efficiency Effects and Environmental Implications," NBER Working Papers 4582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin S. Kay, 2015. "The Effects of Housing Adjustment Costs on Consumption Dynamics," Staff Discussion Papers 15-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.

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