IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2639.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression

Author

Listed:
  • Christina D. Romer

Abstract

This paper argues that the collapse of stock prices in October 1929 generated temporary uncertainty about future income which caused consumers to forego purchases of durable and semidurable goods in late 1929 and much of 1930. Evidence that the stock market crash generated uncertainty is provided by the decline in confidence expressed by contemporary forecasters. Evidence that this uncertainty affected consumer behavior is provided by the fact that spending on consumer durables and semidurables declined immediately following the Great Crash and by the fact that there is a negative historical relationship between stock market variability and the production of consumer durables in the prewar era.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer, 1988. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2639
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2639.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    2. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Total Inventories during Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturers' Inventories, pages 76-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-173, May.
    4. Robert E. Lipsey & Doris Preston, 1966. "Source Book of Statistics Relating to Construction," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lips66-1.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
    6. Mayer, Thomas, 1978. "Consumption in the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 139-145, February.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 918-937, December.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. METAXAS, Theodore & TROMPATZI, Georgia, 2015. "From The Bank Panic Of 1907 To The Great Depression Of 1929 And The Savings And Loan Crisis Of The 1980s: Comparative Analysis And Lessons For The Future," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 79-96.
    2. Haelim Park & Gary Richardson, 2012. "Retail Trade by Federal Reserve District, 1919 to 1939: A Statistical History," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 151-231, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Jihad Dagher, 2018. "Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/008, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2018. "Did Harvard barometers allow for the prediction of the 1929 Stock market crash?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 105-120, March.
    6. Trompatzi, Georgia & Metaxas, Theodore, 2013. "From the Bank Panic of 1907 to the Great Depression of 1929 and the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s: Lessons for the future," MPRA Paper 48272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mark Wheeler (ed.), 1998. "The Economics of the Great Depression," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number egd, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    2. Greasley, David & Madsen, Jakob B. & Oxley, Les, 2001. "Income Uncertainty and Consumer Spending during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 225-251, April.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy," NBER Working Papers 6015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    6. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "With a Bang, not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's “Stock Market Bubble” in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 65-99, March.
    7. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
    10. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    11. Patrick Artus, 1993. "Crises financières et cycle réel : Le rôle des imperfections du marché du crédit," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(3), pages 89-107.
    12. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 7546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Joshua K. Hausman & Paul W. Rhode & Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 427-472, February.
    14. Lukáš Kovanda & Martin Komrska, 2017. "Deflace, odklad spotřeby a hospodářské krize: rétorika centrálních bank vs. ekonomická literatura [Deflation and Economic Crisis: Central Banks' Rhetoric vs. Economic Literature]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 351-369.
    15. Siodla, James, 2020. "Debt and taxes: Fiscal strain and US city budgets during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
    17. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?," NBER Working Papers 3174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Saleuddin, Rasheed & Coffman, D’Maris, 2018. "Can inflation expectations be measured using commodity futures prices?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-48.
    19. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, "undated". "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," IEW - Working Papers 050, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2639. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.