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The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression

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  • Christina D. Romer

Abstract

This paper argues that the collapse of stock prices in October 1929 generated temporary uncertainty about future income which caused consumers to forego purchases of durable and semidurable goods in late 1929 and much of 1930. Evidence that the stock market crash generated uncertainty is provided by the decline in confidence expressed by contemporary forecasters. Evidence that this uncertainty affected consumer behavior is provided by the fact that spending on consumer durables and semidurables declined immediately following the Great Crash and by the fact that there is a negative historical relationship between stock market variability and the production of consumer durables in the prewar era.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer, 1988. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2639
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    1. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
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    3. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-173, May.
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    6. Mayer, Thomas, 1978. "Consumption in the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 139-145, February.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 918-937, December.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. METAXAS, Theodore & TROMPATZI, Georgia, 2015. "From The Bank Panic Of 1907 To The Great Depression Of 1929 And The Savings And Loan Crisis Of The 1980s: Comparative Analysis And Lessons For The Future," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 79-96.
    2. Haelim Park & Gary Richardson, 2012. "Retail Trade by Federal Reserve District, 1919 to 1939: A Statistical History," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 151-231, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Jihad Dagher, 2018. "Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/008, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2018. "Did Harvard barometers allow for the prediction of the 1929 Stock market crash?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 105-120, March.
    6. Trompatzi, Georgia & Metaxas, Theodore, 2013. "From the Bank Panic of 1907 to the Great Depression of 1929 and the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s: Lessons for the future," MPRA Paper 48272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mark Wheeler (ed.), 1998. "The Economics of the Great Depression," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number egd.

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