Deflace, odklad spotřeby a hospodářské krize: rétorika centrálních bank vs. ekonomická literatura[Deflation and Economic Crisis: Central Banks' Rhetoric vs. Economic Literature]

The aim of this paper is to show that the current anti-deflationary rhetoric of central banks lacks adequate support from the economic literature. Based on pure theory, there might be both positive and negative effects of deflation on economic development. The historical record is, if anything, also ambiguous. As recent literature reveals, a substantial number of deflationary periods were accompanied by robust economic growth. The two frequently mentioned examples of dismal deflationary periods - the Great Depression in the United States and the lost decades in Japan - seem to be exceptions. Taking into account the arguments presented in this paper, we argue that central banks should revise their communication strategy. If there is a need to defend easy monetary policy, the main argument should be based, dominantly, on the divergence of forecasted inflation from the inflation target, with a much lesser emphasis on the need to avoid the allegedly destructive effect of deflation.