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Content
2015, Volume 9, Issue 3
- 1-21 Private Information, Overconfidence and Trader Returns in Prediction Markets
by Sheila Goins & Michael Cipriano & Thomas S Gruca - 23-39 Testing of Long Memory in Indian Stock Market using ARFIMA model
by Naliniprava Tripathy - 41-63 A simple decision market model
by Daniel Grainger & Sizhong Sun & Felecia Watkin-Lui & Peter Case
2015, Volume 9, Issue 2
- 1-31 A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts
by Deepak Pathak & David Rotschild & Miroslav Dudik - 32-42 Informed Traders and Balanced Books
by Richard Borghesi
2015, Volume 9, Issue 1
- 1-14 Expected Values And Variances In Bookmaker Payouts: A Theoretical Approach Towards Setting Limits On Odds
by Dominic Cortis - 15-32 Lost Decade, Market Efficiency and Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Greece
by Massoud Metghalchi - 33-52 Examining the forecasting performance of a modified affine model with macroeconomic and latent factors
by Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos - 43-63 Using Prediction Market Prices to Differentiate Factors that Influence the Highest and Lowest Priced Tickets in Dynamic Pricing for Major League Baseball
by Rodney Paul - 53-67 Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets
by Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger - 64-78 Forecasting the decisions of the US Supreme Court: lessons from the ‘affordable care act’ judgment
by Leighton Vaughan Williams - 68-86 Determination of Odds in Prediction Markets: Coexistence of Posted-offer and Double-auction Designs
by Levent Celik & Esen Onur
2014, Volume 8, Issue 3
- 1-23 An Empirical Analysis of Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Indian Listed Companies
by Vandana Gupta - 24-33 Prediction markets vs polls – an examination of accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 elections
by Sveinung Arnesen & Ole Bergfjord - 34-56 The power of priors: How confirmation bias impacts market prices
by Michael Cipriano & Thomas S Gruca - 57-74 Bettor Habits When Point Spreads and Money lines are Offered on the Same Game: The NFL
by Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & Mark Wilson
2014, Volume 8, Issue 2
- 1-28 A Behaviorally Informed Survey-Powered Market Agent
by Jessica Inchauspe & Pavel Atanasov & Barbara Mellers & Philip Tetlock & Lyle Ungar - 29-42 The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football
by Rodney Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Kenneth Small - 43-75 Testing for Dependency, Autocorrelation and Weak Information Efficiency in Horse Race Rankings Time Series
by Mikael Linden - 76-88 Ideas Markets: A Literature Review and Classification Scheme
by Eoin McDonagh & Patrick Buckley - 89-126 Ideas Markets: Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014
by Christian Franz Horn & Bjoern Sven Ivens & Michael Ohneberg & Alexander Brem
2014, Volume 8, Issue 1
- 1-26 A Model For Predicting Population Distribution Among Developed And Developing Countries
by Nissim Ben-David & Evyatar Ben-David & Zvi Winer - 27-41 Emergent Capital Markets’ Efficiency: The Case Of Poland
by Massoud Metghalchi & Adriano Pinho & Adriana Sarmento - 43-76 Information And Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets And Tipsters As Forecasters
by James Reade - 77-95 Forensic Sports Analytics: Detecting And Predicting Match-Fixing In Tennis
by Ryan Rodenberg & Elihu D. Feustel
2013, Volume 7, Issue 3
- 1-28 Wanna Bet There Will Be War? A Time-Series Analysis Of Prediction Markets During The Libya Conflict 2011
by Sebastian Matthias Woerle - 29-44 Multivariate Methods In Assessing The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets Ex Ante Based On Ohe Highest-Price Criterion
by Hung-Wen Lin & Chen-yuan Tung & Jason Yeh - 45-60 Managing Risk Using Prediction Markets
by Gautam Kumar Varma - 61-86 Liquidity Provision And Cross Arbitrage In Continuous Double-Auction Prediction Markets
by Werner Antweiler
2013, Volume 7, Issue 2
- 1-9 Early Season Nba Over/Under Bias
by Clay Girdner & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & David Kirch - 11-27 Market Efficiency And Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence From Vietnam
by Massoud Metghalchi - 29-41 The “Large-Firm” Effect? Bettor Preferences And Market Prices In Ncaa Football
by Rodney Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Eric Higger - 43-54 Employee Discipline And Basketball Referees: A Prediction Market Approach
by Ryan Rodenberg - 55-70 Analyzing Information Efficiency In The Betting Market For Association Football League Winners
by Lars Magnus Hvattum
2013, Volume 7, Issue 1
- 1-12 Can Prediction Markets Mitigate Price Biases?
by Richard Borghesi - 13-26 The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences
by Kevin Krieger & Clay Girdner & Andy Fodor & David Kirch - 27-42 Analysis Of The Disposition Effect: Asymmetry And Prediction Accuracy
by Florian Teschner - 43-52 Predicting Horse Race Winners Through A Regularized Conditional Logistic Regression With Frailty
by Noah Silverman & Marc Suchard - 53-65 Uncertainty Of Outcome And Television Ratings For The Nhl And Mls
by Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach
2012, Volume 6, Issue 3
- 1-13 A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis Of Horse Racing
by Noah Silverman - 14-26 Arbitrage Trade In Prediction Markets
by Ole Bergfjord & Petter Kildal & Thomas McPherson & Lars Loftaas & Kristoffer Valvik - 27-41 Simplifying Market Access: A New Confidence-Based Interface
by Florian Teschner & David Rothschild - 43-61 Long-Term Prediction Markets
by Werner Antweiler
2012, Volume 6, Issue 2
- 1-11 Informational Differences In Nfl Point Spread And Moneyline Markets
by Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & David Kirch & Andrew Kreutzer - 12-21 The Implications Of A Reverse Favourite-Longshot Bias In A Prediction Market
by Richard Borghesi - 22-46 Prediction Market Accuracy: The Impact Of Size, Incentives, Context And Interpretation
by Patrick McHugh & Aaron Jackson - 47-58 Incentives In Prediction Markets
by Leonard Wolk & Ronald Peeters - 59-76 Animal Modeling Of Earthquakes And Prediction Markets
by Adi Schnytzer & Yisrael Schnytzer - 77-97 Prediction For The 2012 United States Presidential Election Using Multiple Regression Model
by Pankaj Sinha & Aastha Sharma & Harsh Vardhan Singh
2012, Volume 6, Issue 1
- 1-30 Dynamic Modeling Forecasts Of Equity Price Movements In Cases Of Insider Trading
by William Mallios - 31-41 Business Cycle And Optimal Timing For Investment
by Joseph Cheng & Jeffery Lippitt - 42-55 Wagering Preferences Of Nfl Bettors: Determinants Of Betting Volume
by Rodney J Paul & Andrew Weinbach - 56-75 Evaluating The Predictiveness And Profitability Of Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models
by Daniel Santamaria
2011, Volume 5, Issue 3
- 1-26 Comparing The Forecasting Accuracy Of Prediction Markets And Polls For Taiwan’S Presidential And Mayoral Elections
by Chen-yuan Tung & Tzu-Chuan Chou & Jih-wen Lin & Hsin-yi Lin - 27-41 Interpreting Political Prediction Market Prices As Probabilities: A Study Of A 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Market
by John F Kros & Enping Mai & Christopher M Keller - 42-63 How Prediction Markets Help Us Understand Events` Impact On The Vote In Us Presidential Elections
by Sveinung Arnesen - 64-74 Do Polls Or Markets Forecast Better? Evidence From The 2010 Us Senate Elections
by Leighton Vaughan Williams & Blake Saville & Herman Stekler
2011, Volume 5, Issue 2
- 1-13 Prediction Markets And Contract Design
by Ole Jakob Bergfjord - 14-31 Short-Selling In Prediction Markets
by Florian Teschner & Maximilian Coblenz & Christof Weinhardt - 32-43 The Regression Tournament: A Novel Approach To Prediction Model Assessment
by Adi Schnytzer & Janez Sustersic - 44-74 Predictive Power Of Information Market Prices
by Maria Putintseva
2011, Volume 5, Issue 1
- 1-11 The Efficiency Of Pari-Mutuel Betting In Standardbred Racing
by Elia Kacapyr - 12-25 Results From A Simple Prediction Contest
by Calvin Blackwell - 26-30 Does The Capital Asset Pricing Model Really Work?
by Nissim Ben-David & Evyatar Ben-David - 31-50 Do Gamblers Correctly Price Momentum In Nba Betting Markets?
by Jeremy Arkes
2010, Volume 4, Issue 3
- 1-19 Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets And Surveys – An Experimental Study
by Robert Reig & Ramona Schoder - 21-58 Real-Money Vs. Play-Money Forecasting Accuracy In Online Prediction Markets – Empirical Insights From Ipredict
by Sebastian Deimer & Joaquin Poblete - 59-83 Adaptive Drift Modeling Of Dynamic Cointegrated Time Series: Applications In Financial And Sports Gambling Markets
by William Mallios - 85-93 A Statistical Model Of Claim Prices In Prediction Markets
by Russ Ray
September 2010, Volume 4, Issue 2
- 1-14 Active Hedging Greeks of an Options Portfolio Integrating Churning and Minimization of Cost of Hedging Using Quadratic & Linear Programing
by Pankaj Sinha & Akshay Gupta & Hemant Mudgal - 15-22 Totals Markets as Evidence Against Widespread Point Shaving
by Richard Borghesi & Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach - 23-43 Pari-Mutuel Information Aggregation Mechanisms with Public Knowledge
by Jared Bullen & Jordi McKenzie - 45-64 Consistency in the US Congressional Popular Opinion Polls and Prediction Markets
by Elliot Tonkes & Dharma Lesmono
May 2010, Volume 4, Issue 1
- 1-5 Forecasting the Dow Jones Rate of Change by Using Vector Auto-Regression
by Nissim Ben David - 7-15 A Statistical Arbitrage Trade Based on Betting Price Volatility
by Alasdair Brown - 17-26 Hedging Greeks for a Portfolio of Options Using Linear and Quadratic Programming
by Pankaj Sinha & Archit Johar - 27-58 Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications
by Caitlin Hall - 59-77 Evidence on the Favorite-Longshot Bias as a Supply-Side Phenomenon
by Matti Metsola
December 2009, Volume 3, Issue 3
- 1-12 The Effect of Contract Structure on Prediction Market Price Biases
by Richard Borghesi - 13-31 Point Shaving in the NFL Gambling Market: A Bootstrap Investigation
by George Diemer - 33-44 Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox
by Katarína Kálovcová & Andreas Ortmann - 45-47 The Cleverness of Crowds
by Leighton Vaughan Williams & Julie Vaughan Williams - 49-62 Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry
by Martin Waitz & Andreas Mild
August 2009, Volume 3, Issue 2
- 1-20 Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets
by Thomas Seemann & Albrecht Enders & Harald Hungenberg - 21-37 Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior
by Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach - 39-64 Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective
by Gerrit Kamp & Peter Koen - 65-77 An Examination of Prediction Market Efficiency: NBA Contracts on Tradesports
by Richard Borghesi - 78-106 Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services
by David Rajakovich & Vladimir Vladimirov
April 2009, Volume 3, Issue 1
- 1 Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets
by Koleman Strumpf - 1-11 The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO
by Jim Lavoie - 13-16 The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization
by Art Hall - 17-39 Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets
by Brian Spears & Christina LaComb & John Interrante & Janet Barnett & Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy - 41-44 The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist's Perspective
by Marco Ottaviani - 45-59 Hanson's Automated Market Maker
by Henry Berg & Todd A. Proebsting - 61-63 On Market Maker Functions
by Robin Hanson - 65-85 Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience
by Adam Siegel - 87-88 The Emergence of Prediction Markets within Business Firms: A Skeptical Perspective from an Intrigued Academic
by Paul W. Rhode - 89-110 Private Prediction Markets and the Law
by Tom W. Bell - 111-112 Comment on Bell Article
by Robert E. Litan
December 2008, Volume 2, Issue 3
- 1-13 Forgone Interest and Contract Mispricing in Predictive Markets
by Charles de los Reyes & Lawrence J. Raifman - 15-32 Exploiting Inefficiencies in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Exploratory Drift Modeling
by William S. Mallios - 33-46 The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets
by Thomas Seemann & Harald Hungenberg - 47-59 Hierarchical Bayes Prediction for the 2008 US Presidential Election
by Pankaj Sinha & Ashok K. Bansal - 61-69 Shorting the Bear: A Test of Anecdotal Evidence of Insider Trading in Early Stages of the Sub-Prime Market Crisis
by Les Coleman & Adi Schnytzer
September 2008, Volume 2, Issue 2
- 1-12 Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk
by O. Bergfjord - 13-28 The Relative Importance of Strength and Weight in Processing New Information in the College Football Betting Market
by Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan - 29-50 Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In?
by Alexander K. Koch & Hui-Fai Shing - 53-70 Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets
by Christian Slamka & Arina Soukhoroukova & Martin Spann - 71-91 Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence
by Andreas Graefe & Christof Weinhardt
May 2008, Volume 2, Issue 1
- 1-27 The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market
by Greg Durham & Tod Perry - 29-43 Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets
by Thomas S. Gruca & Joyce E. Berg & Michael Cipriano - 45-71 The Tradesports NFL Prediction Market: An Analysis of Market Efficiency, Transaction Costs, and Bettor Preferences
by Philip O'Connor & Feng Zhou - 73-90 Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations
by Shih-Wei Wu & Johnnie E.V. Johnson & Ming-Chien Sung - 91-97 Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections
by Lionel Page
December 2007, Volume 1, Issue 3
- 169-187 Adapting Least-Square Support Vector Regression Models to Forecast the Outcome of Horseraces
by Stefan Lessmann & Ming-Chien Sung & Johnnie E.V. Johnson - 189-208 Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems - An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations
by Timm Sprenger & Paul Bolster & Anand Venkateswaran - 209-218 Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior
by Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach - 219-231 Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy
by Thomas S. Gruca & Joyce E. Berg - 233-253 Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports
by Richard Borghesi - 255-270 Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup
by Ricard Gil & Steven D. Levitt
July 2007, Volume 1, Issue 2
- 93-109 An Examination of In-Play Sports Betting Using One-Day Cricket Matches
by Steve Easton & Katherine Uylangco - 111-125 The Hidden Beauty of the Quadratic Market Scoring Rule: A Uniform Liquidity Market Maker, with Variations
by Michael Abramowicz - 127-146 Financial Binary Betting, Styles, Valuations and Deductions from Data
by Peter Oliver - 147-156 How to Pay Traders in Information Markets: Results from a Field Experiment
by Stefan Luckner & Christof Weinhardt - 157-168 The Production and Prediction of Traffic Accidents
by Yuval Shilony
February 2007, Volume 1, Issue 1
- 1-1 Introduction to the First Issue from the Editor
by Leighton Vaughan Williams - 3-15 Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation
by Robin Hanson - 17-41 Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed
by Jed D. Christiansen - 43-59 Comparing the Effectiveness of One- and Two-step Conditional Logit Models for Predicting Outcomes in a Speculative Market
by Ming-Chien Sung & Johnnie E.V. Johnson - 61-73 Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football
by Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud - 75-91 Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review
by Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos