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Capital mobility and the scope for sterilization: Mexico in the 1970s

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  • Robert E. Cumby
  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

This paper is an empirical study of the Banco de Mexico's monetary policy during the 1970s. In particular, it studies the Mexican monetary equilibria and the extent to which capital mobility undermined monetary control. Estimates of a Banco de Mexico reaction function suggest that the Mexican central bank attempted to sterilize reserve flows through offsetting movements in domestic credit, at least over the second half of the decade. This finding suggests that estimates of the capital-account response to domestic credit expansion should be derived from a structural model, and we accordingly estimate an aggregative three-equation model of Mexican financial markets. The paper distinguishes between the short-run or one-quarter capital-account offset and a hypothetical long-run offset that would obtain under instantaneous asset-market adjustment. The model implies that, depending on the method of monetary expansion, between 30 and 50 percent of an expansion in domestic credit was offset by capital outflow in the same quarter. The implied long-run offsets range from 50 to 76 percent. These offset coefficients indicate that the Banco de Mexico's monetary control was exercised at a substantial cost in terms of reserve volatility.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Capital mobility and the scope for sterilization: Mexico in the 1970s," International Finance Discussion Papers 187, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:187
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1981/187/ifdp187.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:ecorec:v:54:y:1978:i:146:p:271-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. M. Buch, Claudia & Hanschel, Elke, 2000. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: The Case of Slovenia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 602-628.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Sterilization of money inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 24(2 Year 19), pages 263-285, December.
    4. Xu, Deyi & Sheraz, Muhammad & Hassan, Arshad & Sinha, Avik & Ullah, Saif, 2022. "Financial development, renewable energy and CO2 emission in G7 countries: New evidence from non-linear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. Sinha, Avik & Bekiros, Stelios & Hussain, Nazim & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Khan, Sana Akbar, 2023. "How social imbalance and governance quality shape policy directives for energy transition in the OECD countries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 45-50, May.
    8. Asad Jan & Ather Elahi & M. A. Zahid, 2005. "Managing Foreign Exchange Inflows: An Analysis of Sterilisation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 777-792.
    9. Renu Kohli, 2011. "Managing Capital Flows In Intermediate Regimes: The Case Of India," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 351-371.
    10. Igor Ljubaj & Ana Martinis & Marko Mrkalj, 2010. "Capital Inflows and Efficiency of Sterilisation – Estimation of Sterilisation and Offset Coefficients," Working Papers 24, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Gyuhan Kim, 1995. "Exchange rate constraints and money control in Korea," Working Papers 1995-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Marcos Buscaglia, 2004. "Sterilization of Capital Inflows and Balance of Payments Crises," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 189, Econometric Society.
    13. Mr. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Guimarães-Filho, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2004/123, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. De La Cruz Martinez, Justino, 1999. "Mexico's balance of payments and exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 401-421.
    16. Wu, Ying, 1999. "More on monetary policy in a small open economy A credit view," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 223-235, June.
    17. Pierre L. Siklos, 2000. "Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992–97," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 373-392.

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