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War and American Democracy

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  • Timothy Y. C. Cotton

    (Department of Political Science, Yale University)

Abstract

Most analyses of American elections have treated wars as special events, including them in the analysis, but seeking only to make conclusions specific to each war. This article examines the last five American wars statistically and historically, seeking to demonstrate that, in general, wars have caused elected leaders associated with American entry into battle to lose ground in wartime elections. Both the statistical results and the historical commentary support the central hypothesis and suggest some important related conclusions: Changes in short-run military outlays appear to be the most effective measure of war's impact on the nation; presidents have been more subject to the effects of war than have members of Congress; and wars have influenced postwar elections at least as much as elections during wartime.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Y. C. Cotton, 1986. "War and American Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 616-635, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:30:y:1986:i:4:p:616-635
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002786030004002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Ostrom, Charles W. & Simon, Dennis M., 1985. "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 334-358, June.
    3. Bloom, Howard S. & Price, H. Douglas, 1975. "Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: the Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1240-1254, December.
    4. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
    5. Goodman, Saul & Kramer, Gerald H., 1975. "Comment on Arcelus and Meltzer, The Effect of Aggregate Economic Conditions on Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1255-1265, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heckman, James J, 1995. "Lessons from the Bell Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1091-1120, October.

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