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Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics

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  • Aurélien Goutsmedt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

Abstract

The article studies the 1978 macroeconomics conference titled "After the Phillips Curve", where Lucas and Sargent presented their fierce attack against structural macroeconometric models, "After Keynesian Macroeconomics". The article aims at enlarging the comprehension of changes in macroeconomics in the 1970s. It shows: 1) that Lucas and Sargent dit not tackle directly the issue of the explanation of stagflation; 2) but that the struggle between different methodological stances in the conference cannot be separated from the way macroeconomists interpreted stagflation; 3) that it was not an opposition between being in favor or against microfounded models, but rather on the way we build microfoundations; 4) finally that the study of the 1978 conference opens the doors for scrutinizing the evolution of institution macroeconometric models of the 1970s which were not totally overthrown by Lucas and Sargent's arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Post-Print halshs-01625188, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01625188
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01625188
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    Cited by:

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    2. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco & Guizzo, Danielle, 2019. "An Agenda without a Plan: Robert E. Lucas's Trajectory throught the Public Debate," OSF Preprints 7jpa9, Center for Open Science.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Cléo Chassonnery-Zaïgouche, 2023. "Modeling intervention: The Political element in Barbara Bergmann's micro-to-macro simulation projects," Working Papers hal-04208686, HAL.
    4. Matthieu Renault, 2018. "Edmond Malinvaud´s Criticisms of the New Classical Economics: Restoring the Nature and the Rationale of the Old Keynesians´ Opposition," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    History of macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Microfoundations; Structural Macroeconometric Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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