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Forgetfulness And The Political Cycle

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  • RON SHACHAR

Abstract

This paper examines a mechanism that underlies both the political business cycle and the cycle in non‐economic policies executed by politicians. We show that if rational voters suffer from forgetfulness (a noise in the memory). then government expenditure on the production of public good increases as elections approach. Hence, the model describes a cycle that is observed in the government expenditures of democratic societies. Unlike previous models, this model does not require that the government have information superiority over rational voters with respect to its competency. According to this model, incumbents transfer resources from the beginning of their terms of service and use them near the end of their terms. We also find that the less concave the production function, the wider the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Shachar, 1993. "Forgetfulness And The Political Cycle," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 15-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:5:y:1993:i:1:p:15-25
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0343.1993.tb00064.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy And Elections In Oecd Democracies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 1987. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 831, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Nuno Baleiras & José da Silva Costa, 2003. "To Be or Not To Be in Office Again: Political Business Cycles with Local Governments," Public Economics 0302009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rui Baleiras & Vasco Santos, 2000. "Behavioral and Institutional Determinants of Political Business Cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 121-147, July.
    3. Mejía Cubillos, Javier, 2012. "Libertad y desempeño económico [Freedom and economic performance]," MPRA Paper 37939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rui Nuno Baleiras & Vasco Santos, 2003. "On the Likelihood and Welfare Effects of “Stop–and–go” Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 121-133, January.
    5. Rui Nuno Baleiras & Jose da Silva Costa, 2001. "To be or not to be in office again, that is the question: political business cycles with local governments," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp402, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    6. Nuno Baleiras, Rui, 1997. "Electoral defeats and local political expenditure cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 201-207, October.
    7. Baleiras, Rui Nuno & da Silva Costa, Jose, 2004. "To be or not to be in office again: an empirical test of a local political business cycle rationale," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 655-671, September.

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