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And After That, Who Knows?: Detailing the Marginal Accuracy of Weekly College Football Polls

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  • Nutting Andrew W.

    (University of Idaho)

Abstract

This paper determines that rankings in both the Media and Coaches college football Top 25 Polls are significantly accurate at their tops, insignificantly accurate towards their bottoms, and significantly more accurate at their tops than their bottoms. The computer-based Sagarin Poll is significantly accurate at both its top and bottom, and significantly more accurate at its top than its bottom. Comparing the Media and Coaches Polls to the Sagarin Poll suggests that the Media and Coaches Polls have diminishing accuracy because of both imperfections in voter behavior and smaller actual differences in team quality at lower ranks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nutting Andrew W., 2011. "And After That, Who Knows?: Detailing the Marginal Accuracy of Weekly College Football Polls," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:10
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Jay Coleman & Andres Gallo & Paul M. Mason & Jeffrey W. Steagall, 2010. "Voter Bias in the Associated Press College Football Poll," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 397-417, August.
    2. Noel D. Campbell & Tammy M. Rogers & R. Zachary Finney, 2007. "Evidence of Television Exposure Effects in AP Top 25 College Football Rankings," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 425-434, August.
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    4. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2002. "Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm310, Yale School of Management.
    5. Trevon Logan, 2011. "Econometric tests of American college football's conventional wisdom," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2493-2518.
    6. Lebovic, James H. & Sigelman, Lee, 2001. "The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-120.
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    Cited by:

    1. Randall W. Bennett, 2019. "Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 103-110, March.
    2. Stacey L. Brook & Xiaomin Gai, 2020. "How Do Outside Experts Evaluate Team Performance? An Empirical Analysis of Harris Poll Voting Behavior," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1590-1601, December.
    3. Daniel F. Stone, 2013. "Testing Bayesian Updating With The Associated Press Top 25," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1457-1474, April.
    4. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2018. "March Madness? Underreaction To Hot And Cold Hands In Ncaa Basketball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1724-1747, July.
    5. Daniel Stone & Basit Zafar, 2014. "Do we follow others when we should outside the lab? Evidence from the AP top 25," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 73-102, August.

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