IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp1989_023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Finnish rational expectations QMED model: estimation, dynamic properties and policy results

Author

Listed:
  • Lahti, Ari
  • Virén, Matti

Abstract

This paper reports some policy experiments carried out with the QMED model of the Bank of Finland. These experiments illustrate the dynamic and long-run properties of this model. Thus, it is investigated how different temporary and permanent, random and nonrandom, shocks affect the cyclical path and long-run growth rate of total output. The main issue is, however, the role of expectations. Thus, we compare a static expectations version with two rational expectations versions of the model. These two versions differ in terms of the time horizon of expectations. When various policy simulations are carried out with these different versions - both in terms of anticipated and unanticipated shocks - it turns out that the whole short-run dynamics is cruci ally affected by the way in which expectations are modelled. In particular, we find the advance effects in the case of the rati onal expectati ons versi ons can be af considerable magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1989. "The Finnish rational expectations QMED model: estimation, dynamic properties and policy results," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1989_023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211558/1/bof-rdp1989-023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-552, September.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Naylor, Thomas H & Wertz, Kenneth & Wonnacott, Thomas H, 1969. "Spectral Analysis of Data Generated by Simulation Experiments with Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 333-352, April.
    4. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    5. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Cleur, Eugene M., 1978. "Spectral analysis of stochastic and analytic simulation results for a nonlinear model for the Italian economy," MPRA Paper 22966, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1978.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Matthews, Kent & Marwaha, Satwant, 1979. "Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 117-120.
    7. William Poole, 1976. "Rational Expectations in the Macro Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 463-514.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1989. "The Finnish rational expectations QMED model : estimation, dynamic properties and policy results," Research Discussion Papers 23/1989, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1989_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1988_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1988. "Rational expectations in a macromodel : Some comparative analyses with Finnish data," Research Discussion Papers 5/1988, Bank of Finland.
    5. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1988. "Rational expectations in a macromodel: Some comparative analyses with Finnish data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1988, Bank of Finland.
    6. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2011. "Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 67-88, January.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Peter B. Dixon & K.R. Pearson & Mark R. Picton & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2002. "Rational Expectations for Large Models: A Practical Algorithm and a Policy Application," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-81, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    10. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    11. Peter McAdam, 1998. "A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models," Studies in Economics 9807, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 718, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Lohmann, Susanne, 1997. "Partisan control of the money supply and decentralized appointment powers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-246, May.
    15. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    16. Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-29.
    17. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    18. Osama Sweidan & Aktham Maghyereh, 2006. "Monetary policy and the central bank's securities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 593-598.
    19. Francesca Castellani & Xavier Debrun, 2005. "Designing Macroeconomic Frameworks: A Positive Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Delegation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 87-117, March.
    20. Roque B. Fernández, 1991. "What Have Populists Learned from Hyperinflation?," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 121-149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    22. Paul D. McNelis, 2014. "Finding Stability in a Time of Crisis: Lessons of East Asia for Eastern Europe," Working Papers 052014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1989_023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.