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Religious riots and electoral politics in India

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  • Iyer, Sriya
  • Shrivastava, Anand

Abstract

We study the effect of Hindu-Muslim riots on election results in India. We combine data on geo-coded riots with data on state elections and on demographics and public goods provision to construct a unique panel data set for 16 large states in India from 1981 to 2001. A new instrument is used that draws upon the random variation in the day of the week that Hindu festivals fall on, as set by a lunar calendar. The probability of a riot increases if a Hindu festival falls on a Friday, the holy day for Muslims. This allows us to isolate the causal effect of riots on electoral results. The results are also corrected for under-reporting of riots and their effect on nearby districts. We find that riots occurring in the year preceding an election increase the vote share of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party by at least 5 percentage points.

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  • Iyer, Sriya & Shrivastava, Anand, 2018. "Religious riots and electoral politics in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 104-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:131:y:2018:i:c:p:104-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.11.003
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    2. Aidt, T. S. & Leon, G. & Satchell, M., 2017. "The Social Dynamics of Collective Action: Evidence from the Captain Swing Riots, 1830-31," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1751, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Kalra, Aarushi, 2021. "A 'Ghetto' of One's Own: Communal Violence, Residential Segregation and Group Education Outcomes in India," SocArXiv 265r3, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kalra, Aarushi, 2021. "A 'Ghetto' of One's Own: Communal Violence, Residential Segregation and Group Education Outcomes in India," SocArXiv rzjct, Center for Open Science.
    5. Roy, Ambika & Mukherjee, Anirban, 2023. "Electoral Cycles and Caste Violence in India," SocArXiv bh2vk, Center for Open Science.
    6. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2022. "Rainy Friday: religious participation and protests," IDE Discussion Papers 859, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. H Zeynep Bulutgil & Neeraj Prasad, 2023. "Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 619-633, July.
    8. Maiti, Surya Nath & Pakrashi, Debayan & Saha, Sarani & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Don't judge a book by its cover: The role of intergroup contact in reducing prejudice in conflict settings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 533-548.
    9. Mehic, Adrian, 2024. "Infrastructure Expansion, Tourism, and Electoral Outcomes," Working Paper Series 1490, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Hager, Anselm & Krakowski, Krzysztof & Schaub, Max, 2019. "Ethnic Riots and Prosocial Behavior: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 113(4), pages 1029-1044.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Religion; Political economy; Riots; Elections; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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