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Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017

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  • Ray C. Fair

    (Yale University)

Abstract

This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model, and so their behaviors in this period are a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:53:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-018-0095-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-018-0095-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    2. Fay, Jon A & Medoff, James L, 1985. "Labor and Output over the Business Cycle: Some Direct Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 638-655, September.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Fair Ray C, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, August.
    5. Ray Fair, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2629, Yale School of Management.
    6. Fair, Ray C, 1985. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 239-245, March.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2016. "Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190621070.
    8. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. Ray C. Fair, 2017. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 495-523, March.
    11. Lee E. Ohanian, 2017. "The Great Recession in the Shadow of the Great Depression: A Review Essay on Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses and Misuses of History, by Barry Eichengreen," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1583-1601, December.
    12. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    13. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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