IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v6y2006i4p283-295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term market reaction after extreme price changes of liquid stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Zawadowski
  • Gyorgy Andor
  • Janos Kertesz

Abstract

In our empirical study we examine the dynamics of the price evolution of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intra-day price change, using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find a significant reversal for both intra-day price decreases and increases. Volatility, volume and, in the case of the NYSE, the bid-ask spread, which increase sharply at the event, stay significantly high days afterwards. The decay of the volatility follows a power law in accordance with the 'Omori law'. While on the NYSE the large widening of the bid-ask spread eliminates most of the profits that can be achieved by an outside investor, on the NASDAQ the bid-ask spread stays almost constant, yielding significant short-term profits. The results thus give an insight into the size and speed of the realization of an excess return for providing liquidity in a turbulent market.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Zawadowski & Gyorgy Andor & Janos Kertesz, 2006. "Short-term market reaction after extreme price changes of liquid stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 283-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:4:p:283-295
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680600699894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697680600699894
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697680600699894?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wood, Robert A & McInish, Thomas H & Ord, J Keith, 1985. "An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 723-739, July.
    2. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
    4. Yanhui Liu & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "The statistical properties of the volatility of price fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/9903369, arXiv.org, revised Mar 1999.
    5. Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 535-547, December.
    6. Sergei Maslov & Mark Mills, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective - empirical facts and a simple model," Papers cond-mat/0102518, arXiv.org.
    7. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    8. Challet, Damien & Stinchcombe, Robin, 2003. "Limit order market analysis and modelling: on a universal cause for over-diffusive prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 141-145.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    10. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    11. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    12. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256.
    13. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 345-365, September.
    14. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
    15. Zawadowski, A.G. & Kertész, J. & Andor, G., 2004. "Large price changes on small scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 221-226.
    16. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004. "What really causes large price changes?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
    17. Maslov, Sergei & Mills, Mark, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective—empirical facts and a simple model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 234-246.
    18. Philipp Weber & Bernd Rosenow, 2006. "Large stock price changes: volume or liquidity?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-14.
    19. Busse, Jeffrey A. & Clifton Green, T., 2002. "Market efficiency in real time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 415-437, September.
    20. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    21. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    22. Chan, K C & Christie, William G & Schultz, Paul H, 1995. "Market Structure and the Intraday Pattern of Bid-Ask Spreads for NASDAQ Securities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 35-60, January.
    23. Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2001. "Power law relaxation in a complex system: Omori law after a financial market crash," Papers cond-mat/0111257, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2003.
    24. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    25. A. G. Zawadowski & J. Kertesz & G. Andor, 2004. "Large price changes on small scales," Papers cond-mat/0401055, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2004.
    26. Zawadowski, A.G & Karádi, R & Kertész, J, 2002. "Price drops, fluctuations, and correlation in a multi-agent model of stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 403-412.
    27. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 241-256, June.
    28. Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0210710, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    29. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Mei-Ling & Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Li, Sai-Ping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Ren, Fei, 2022. "New volatility evolution model after extreme events," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Mei-Ling Cai & Zhang-HangJian Chen & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Ming-Yuan Yang & Fei Ren, 2022. "New volatility evolution model after extreme events," Papers 2201.03213, arXiv.org.
    3. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu, 2020. "Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short‐term and long‐term effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 797-810, August.
    4. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2014. "When Do Opening Stock Returns Tend to be Higher?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 445-458, September.
    5. Ham, Hyuna & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2022. "The effects of overnight events on daytime trading sessions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhang, Wei & Liu, Yi-Fang, 2014. "Short-term market reaction after trading halts in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 103-111.
    7. Jordan Mann & J. Nathan Kutz, 2016. "Dynamic mode decomposition for financial trading strategies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1643-1655, November.
    8. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The fine-structure of volatility feedback I: multi-scale self-reflexivity," Papers 1206.2153, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    9. Andrey KUDRYAVTSEV, 2013. "Mechanism Of Autocorrelations Of Individual Stocks' Opening Returns," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 12, pages 37-56, June.
    10. Yuewen Xiao & Xiangkang Yin & Jing Zhao, 2020. "Jumps, News, And Subsequent Return Dynamics: An Intraday Study," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 705-731, August.
    11. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wen-Jie Xie & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Yong-Jie Zhang & W. -X. Zhou, 2012. "Trading networks, abnormal motifs and stock manipulation," Papers 1301.0007, arXiv.org.
    12. Wen, Zhuzhu & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Intraday return predictability in the cryptocurrency markets: Momentum, reversal, or both," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2013. "Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 203-205.
    14. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    15. Todorova, Neda, 2017. "The intraday directional predictability of large Australian stocks: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 221-230.
    16. R'emy Chicheportiche, 2013. "Non-linear dependences in finance," Papers 1309.5073, arXiv.org.
    17. Jorge V. P鲥z-Rodr z & Beatriz G. L. Valcarcel, 2012. "Do product innovation and news about the R&D process produce large price changes and overreaction? The case of pharmaceutical stock prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(17), pages 2217-2229, June.
    18. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "The prevalence of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    21. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Chen & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou & H Eugene Stanley, 2016. "Limit-order book resiliency after effective market orders: Spread, depth and intensity," Papers 1602.00731, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    22. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yi-Fang Liu, 2013. "Short-term Market Reaction after Trading Halts in Chinese Stock Market," Papers 1309.1138, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    23. Min Dai & Yipeng Jiang & Hong Liu & Jing Xu, 2023. "A Rational Theory for Disposition Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 131-157, January.
    24. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Pecora, Nicolò & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2021. "Financial earthquakes: SARS-CoV-2 news shock propagation in stock and sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    25. Błażej Prusak & Marcin Potrykus, 2021. "Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mike, Szabolcs & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2008. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 200-234, January.
    2. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    3. Jorge V. P鲥z-Rodr z & Beatriz G. L. Valcarcel, 2012. "Do product innovation and news about the R&D process produce large price changes and overreaction? The case of pharmaceutical stock prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(17), pages 2217-2229, June.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    5. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    6. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical shape function of limit-order books in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5182-5188.
    7. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Qing-Qing Yang & Jia-Wen Gu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu, 2019. "On Optimal Pricing Model for Multiple Dealers in a Competitive Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 397-431, January.
    9. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Eugene Stanley, H., 2008. "Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 303-319, January.
    10. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
    11. Saran Ahuja & George Papanicolaou & Weiluo Ren & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2016. "Limit order trading with a mean reverting reference price," Papers 1607.00454, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    12. Kyubin Yim & Gabjin Oh & Seunghwan Kim, 2016. "Understanding Financial Market States Using an Artificial Double Auction Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Juan C. Henao-Londono & Sebastian M. Krause & Thomas Guhr, 2021. "Price response functions and spread impact in correlated financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 94(4), pages 1-20, April.
    14. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    15. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    16. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    17. Patel, Vinay & Michayluk, David, 2016. "Return predictability following different drivers of large price changes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 202-214.
    18. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "The Effect Of Trading Volumes On Stock Returns Following Large Price Moves," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 85-116, January –.
    19. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato, 1999. "Volume and individual security returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 351-370, August.
    20. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:4:p:283-295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.