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A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models

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  • Peter McAdam

Abstract

This paper surveys and motivates the reasons for incorporating explicit long run of supply features into applied estimated macro economic models. It defines some basic stability conditions for such models and illustrates elements of long run considerations with reference to a small (22 equation) prototype model which fashions itself after many current models. It also shows that many of the key decisions when setting up the long run extended simulation horizon reduce to a relatively small number of relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter McAdam, 1998. "A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models," Studies in Economics 9807, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9807
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    File URL: https://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/repec/9807.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
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    3. Kenneth F. Wallis & John D. Whitley, 1987. "Long-Run Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 207-224.
    4. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
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    6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    8. Michel De Vroey & Pierre Malgrange, 2016. "Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Gilbert Faccarello & Heinz D. Kurz (ed.), Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis Volume III, chapter 27, pages 372-390, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    11. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Myszczyszyn Janusz, 2021. "Development of Transport as a Factor of the Economic Miracle (Wirtschaftswunder) of West Germany," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 189-215, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long run; stability; macro models; closures.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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