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Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?

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  • Michael T. Belongia

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  • Michael T. Belongia, 1988. "Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1988:i:nov:p:15-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1979. "Three aspects of policy and policymaking: Knowledge, data and institutions," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, January.
    2. Keith M. Carlson, 1982. "A monetary analysis of the administration's budget and economic projections," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 64(May), pages 3-14.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-331, May.
    4. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    5. Meltzer, Allan H, 1987. "Limits of Short-run Stabilization Policy: Presidential Address to the Western Economic Association, July 3, 1986," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby Pandey, 1996. "An evaluation of federal reserve forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 89-109.
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:335690 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Brown, Jeff E. & Ethridge, Don E. & Hudson, Darren & Engels, Carlos, 1995. "An Automated Econometric Approach for Estimating and Reporting Daily Cotton Market Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 409-422, December.
    4. Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989. "The Demand For Money in the U.S. During the Great Depression: Estimates and Comparison with the Post War Experience," NBER Working Papers 3217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Keith M. Carlson, 1989. "Federal budget trends and the 1981 Reagan economic plan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 18-31.
    6. Martinez, Andrew B., 2015. "How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 312-324.
    7. Robert Krol, 2014. "Forecast Bias of Government Agencies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
    8. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    9. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2014. "Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post," Working Papers 14-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2018. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 933-945, December.
    11. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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