Empirical tests of the rationality of USDA crop forecasts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Daniel A. Summer & Rolf A. E. Mueller, 1989. "Are Harvest Forecasts News? USDA Announcements and Futures Market Reactions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-331, May.
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 2503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976.
"Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1974. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Working Papers 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Falk, Barry L. & Orazem, Peter, 1989. "Measuring Market Responses to Error-Ridden Government Announcements," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11096, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Statistical Reporting Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 1983. "Scope and Methods of the Statistical Reporting Service," USDA Miscellaneous 320022, United States Department of Agriculture.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01087522, HAL.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1978. "Optimal demand policies against stagflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 736-782, December.
- Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020.
"Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
- Karali, Berna & Isengildina Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H., 2018. "Does Noise in Market Expectations Dilute Price Reactions to USDA Reports?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273973, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Peter J. Stemp, 1991. "Optimal Weights in a Check‐List of Monetary Indicators," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(1), pages 1-13, March.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008.
"Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas J. Muench, 2003. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Working Papers wp059, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Tom Muench, 2005. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008.
"To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?,"
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
- Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-15, April.
- Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37573, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2020.
"A theory of information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets,"
Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 223-236, October.
- Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2019. "A Theory of Information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets," Papers 1904.03726, arXiv.org.
- Michael P. Clements, 2014.
"US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," Economic Research Papers 270653, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1982.
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations,"
NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "The ends of four big inflations," Working Papers 158, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006.
"Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis,"
Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Working Papers wp062, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Alexander, Volbert & Loef, Hans-Edi, 1979. "The determinants of aggregate variables in different exchange rate systems," Discussion Papers, Series I 132, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
- Elkin Castaño & Luis Fernando Melo, 1998.
"Métodos de Combinación de Pronósticos: Una Aplicación a la Inflación Colombiana,"
Borradores de Economia
109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Elkin Castaño V. & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 1998. "Métodos De Combinación De Pronósticos:Una Aplicación A La Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 3212, Banco de la Republica.
- Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018.
"Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.
- Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip, 2016. "Intraday Market Effects in Electronic Soybean Futures Market during Non-Trading and Trading Hour Announcements," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235772, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Czy szacując efekty polityki makroekonomicznej należy uwzględniać perspektywę planowania gospodarstw domowych?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 39-61.
- Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2011.
"Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve,"
Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 67-88, January.
- Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2008. "Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve," Working Papers UWEC-2008-09-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
- Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017.
"Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices,"
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H., 2016. "Market Reaction to Inefficiencies in USDA Crop Production Forecasts," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:1990010108000018155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.