IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Wdowinski

Abstract

In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE). The individual monthly beta parameters time series are computed as structural regression parameters estimated for daily data in monthly sub-periods in regressions for WIG and WIG20 indexes on individual foreign stock market indexes. The beta risk is an average of monthly individual beta parameters. We put forward a hypothesis that the estimated beta risk depends on monetary and real variables expressing the economic performance of the Polish economy. Hence, we build monetary and real factors models. As explanatory variables of risk, we examine: income, productivity, trade balance, budget deficit, interest rate and the zloty exchange rate. The risk factors are expressed as differentials relative to the world economy for which stands the U.S. economy. According to Fair and Shiller (1990), we test for relative one-period-ahead predictive performance of monetary and real factors models of capital market risk in Poland in the period 1999-2002. We find that monetary variables as exchange rate and interest rate have relatively more power than real variables in explaining the beta market risk in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Wdowinski, 2004. "Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland," CESifo Working Paper Series 1120, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1120.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    3. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & Yew, Kee Ho, 1997. "A new test of the relationship between regulatory change in financial markets and the stability of beta risk of depository institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 197-219, February.
    4. Stephen Godfrey & Ramon Espinosa, 1996. "A Practical Approach To Calculating Costs Of Equity For Investments In Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 80-90, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    6. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), 2001. "Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-55453-5, December.
    8. Sunder, Shyam, 1980. "Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-896, September.
    9. Perotti, Enrico C. & van Oijen, Pieter, 2001. "Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-69, February.
    10. Pavlos Karadeloglou & George Chobanov & Aleš Delakorda & Wladyslaw Milo & Piotr Wdowinski, 2001. "The Exchange Rate, Prices and the Supply Response under Transition: A Simulation Study," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 6, pages 78-88, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    12. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    13. Bracker, Kevin & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 443-471.
    14. Alexander, Gordon J. & Benson, P. George, 1982. "More on Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 27-36, March.
    15. Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
    16. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
    17. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    18. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 101-116, March.
    19. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
    21. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    22. Nicolaas, Patricia Groenewold Fraser, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9‐10), pages 1367-1383, October.
    23. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Murli Rajan, 1997. "A Joint Test of Market Segmentation and Exchange Risk Factor in International Capital Market," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, March.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    26. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
    27. Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1987. "Risk and Inflation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 89-99, March.
    28. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
    29. Eric J. Pentecost, 1993. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 355.
    30. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Wdowiński & Aneta Zglińska-Pietrzak, 2005. "The Warsaw Stock Exchange Index WIG: Modeling and Forecasting," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 192/2005 - Issues in Modeling, Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 7, pages 115-127, University of Lodz.
    2. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
    3. Piotr Wdowinski, 2005. "Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1557, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
    2. Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gokce, 2006. "Modeling country risk in Latin America: A country beta approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 192-213, December.
    3. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    4. Don U.A. Galagedera, 2004. "A survey on risk-return analysis," Finance 0406010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Roman Mestre, 2021. "A wavelet approach of investing behaviors and their effects on risk exposures," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, December.
    7. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    9. Petros Messis & Antonis Alexandridis & Achilleas Zapranis, 2021. "Testing and comparing conditional risk‐return relationship with a new approach in the cross‐sectional framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 218-240, January.
    10. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    12. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
    13. Joaquim Andrade & Vladimir Teles, 2006. "An empirical model of the Brazilian country risk -- an extension of the beta country risk model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1271-1278.
    14. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Ortas, E. & Salvador, M. & Moneva, J.M., 2015. "Improved beta modeling and forecasting: An unobserved component approach with conditional heteroscedastic disturbances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-51.
    16. Stefano D'Addona & Mattia Ciprian, 2007. "Time Varying Sensitivities On A Grid Architecture," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 307-329.
    17. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    18. Antypas, Antonios & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2020. "Estimation of conditional asset pricing models with integrated variables in the beta specification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
    20. Javed Iqbal & Aziz Haider, 2005. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 123-139, Jan-Jun.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    country beta risk; capital market; risk modelling; econometric model; forecasting; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.