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Stabilisation efficace des systèmes économiques en présence d'incertitude : expérimentation avec une maquette du modèle DMS

Author

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  • Cuong Le Van
  • Pierre Malgrange
  • Michel Deleau

Abstract

[eng] The uncertaintf frontier as a global approach to the efficient stabilization of economic systems : . An experimentation with the micro-DMS model. Michel Deleau, Cuong Le Van, Pierre Malgrange. The aim of the paper is to apply to a reduced version of the French planning DMS model, résulta related to the concept of « uncertainty frontier », global caracterisation of the stabilization possibilities of a System under uncertainty. It is shown that :. ― in the short run, the rigidities of the system make uncertainty very hard to be reduced substantially ;. ― in the long run, the system cannot be stabilized if one put too much weight on the trade balance. [fre] Ce papier a pour but d'appliquer à une version réduite du modèle français de planification DMS les résultats relatifs au concept de « frontière d'incertitude », mesure globale des possibilités de stabilisation d'un système en présence d'incertitude. On montre, en particulier, que :. — à court terme, la marge de réduction de l'incertitude est, du fait des rigidités du système, assez limitée;— à long terme le système ne peut être rendu globalement stable qu'à condition de ne pas chercher à trop stabiliser l'équilibre extérieur.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuong Le Van & Pierre Malgrange & Michel Deleau, 1984. "Stabilisation efficace des systèmes économiques en présence d'incertitude : expérimentation avec une maquette du modèle DMS," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(3), pages 507-536.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1984_num_35_3_408791
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1984.408791
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1984.408791
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1974. "The Stability Properties of Optimal Economic Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 136-148, March.
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    5. André Gauron & Joël Maurice, 1980. "Des politiques économiques pour le VIIIe Plan : une exploration de l'ensemble des possibles," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 31(5), pages 894-929.
    6. Dominique Bureau & Michel Norotte, 1984. "Simulations de mesures de politique économique : une typologie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 63(2), pages 3-37.
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