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Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval

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  • Fox, Gerald T.

Abstract

A comparative analysis on the influence of war and the macroeconomy upon incumbent approval during the Korean, Vietnam, and Iraq/Afghanistan conflicts. Inflation, unemployment, war rallies, and soldier casualties are systematic factors upon popularity in each of the three wartime periods. The casualty effect upon approval is greatest during the Vietnam Conflict, while economic influence is greatest during the Iraq/Afghanistan wars. The median citizen’s macroeconomic preference is approximately time consistent in all three episodes, with an inflation target of zero and an unemployment target close to the natural unemployment rate. This implies that wartime macroeconomic overheating likely causes popularity to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Fox, Gerald T., 2012. "Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 891-902.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:891-902
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2014. "Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 119-124.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Presidential job approval; Macroeconomic time consistency; Macroeconomic policy; Unemployment; Inflation; War;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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