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Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

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  • Fair, Ray C

Abstract

This paper examines various interest rate rules, as well as policies derived by solving optimal control problems, for their ability to dampen economic fluctuations caused by random shocks. A tax rate rule is also considered. A multicountry econometric model is used for the experiments. The results differ sharply from those obtained using recent models in which the coefficient on inflation in the nominal interest rate rule must be greater than one in order for the economy to be stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Fair, Ray C, 2005. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 645-660, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:645-60
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    1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12.
    12. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    13. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    15. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 90-94, May.
    16. David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & John Williams, 1999. "Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 85(Jan), pages 1-19, January.
    17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 25, pages 89-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    3. Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2014. "Inflation illusion and the Taylor principle: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 94-110.
    4. Xiao, Wei, 2008. "Increasing Returns And The Design Of Interest Rate Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 22-49, February.
    5. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
    7. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    8. Jean-Pascal Benassy, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules, Price Determinacy and the Value of Money in a non Ricardian World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 651-667, July.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Inflation shocks and interest rate rules," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(19), pages 1-7.
    10. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.
    11. Julio López Gallardo & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2014. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy [Demande Effective dans l'évolution récente de l'économie des Etats-Unis]," Post-Print halshs-01907268, HAL.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1861, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Julio Lopez-Gallardo & Luis Reyes-Ortiz, 2011. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_673, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Luis Carranza & Jose E. Galdon‐Sanchez & Javier Gomez‐Biscarri, 2010. "Understanding the Relationship between Financial Development and Monetary Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 849-864, November.
    15. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, "undated". "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Ray Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2492, Yale School of Management.
    17. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
    18. Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Real Balance Effects and Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(3), pages 497-511, July.
    19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:19:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ray C. Fair, 2011. "What It Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2012.
    21. Siagi Ayub Nteng’a & Ombui Kefa Andrew & Mukulu Elegwa, 2014. "Effect of the Structure of Guidance and Counselling Programme on the Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 57-76, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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