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Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation

In: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 157-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7191
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    Cited by:

    1. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    2. Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
    3. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
    4. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper 112.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
    6. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Multivariate Threshold Models: TVARs and TVECMs," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(1), May.
    7. Urooj Khan & N. Bugra Ozel, 2016. "Real Activity Forecasts Using Loan Portfolio Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 895-937, June.
    8. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
    9. Eryilmaz, Derya & Homans, Frances, 2013. "Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Policy: How do Renewable Energy Credit markets and Production Tax Credits affect decisions to invest in renewable energy?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150018, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    11. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    12. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    13. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    14. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
    15. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
    16. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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