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Consumption and population age structure

Author

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  • Erlandsen, Solveig

    (Norges Bank)

  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in empirical consumption functions. Our findings suggest that they should. By analysing Norwegian quarterly time series data we find that changes in the age distribution of the population have significant and life cycle consistent effects on aggregate consumption. Furthermore, controlling for age structure effects stabilizes the other parameters of the consumption function and reveals significant real interest rate effects. Simulation experiments show that the numerical effect on the savings rate of age structure changes is substantial when the indirect effects via wealth and income are accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Erlandsen, Solveig & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Consumption and population age structure," Memorandum 27/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2004_027
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    Cited by:

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    2. Eilev Jansen, 2013. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 873-904, October.
    3. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    4. Esa Karonen & Mikko Niemelä, 2022. "Necessity-Rich, Leisure-Poor: The Long-Term Relationship Between Income Cohorts and Consumption Through Age-Period-Cohort Analysis," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 599-620, September.
    5. Lei He & Shuyi Zhou & Zilan Liu, 2020. "How is aggregate household consumption affected jointly by longevity, pension, and aging? Theory and evidence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(4), pages 499-512, December.
    6. Delphine Bassilière & Didier Baudewyns & Francis Bossier & Ingrid Bracke & Igor Lebrun & Peter Stockman & Peter Willemé, 2013. "Working Paper 13-13 - A new version of the HERMES model - HERMES III," Working Papers 1313, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    7. Britta Stoever, 2012. "The Influence of Age on Consumption," EcoMod2012 3808, EcoMod.
    8. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    9. Solveig Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2008. "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 505-520, July.
    10. Xing Cai & Yinhe Zhang, 2023. "Population Aging and Household Tourism Consumption—An Empirical Study Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.
    11. Han, Xuehui & Cheng, Yuan, 2020. "Consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio with household structure heterogeneity in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    12. Rami Ben HAJ-KACEM, 2015. "The Impact of Age Distribution on Household Consumption: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 277-304, December.
    13. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2016. "Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input–output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-63.
    14. Amoako, Samuel & Andoh, Francis Kwaw & Asmah, Emmanuel Ekow, 2023. "Household structure and electricity consumption in Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Lei He & Shuyi Zhou & Zilan Liu, 0. "How is aggregate household consumption affected jointly by longevity, pension, and aging? Theory and evidence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 0, pages 1-14.
    16. Han, Xuehui & Cheng, Yuan, 2017. "Consumption- and Productivity-Adjusted Dependency Ratio with Household Structure Heterogeneity," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 531, Asian Development Bank.
    17. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Eilev S. Jansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "The Consumption Euler Equation or the Keynesian Consumption Function?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 252-272, February.
    18. Britta Stoever, 2013. "The power of elderly consumers – how demographic change affects the economy through private household demand in Germany," EcoMod2013 5147, EcoMod.
    19. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ran Yu & Zhangchi Wang & Yan Li & Zuhui Wen & Weijia Wang, 2023. "Does Population Aging Affect Carbon Emission Intensity by Regulating Labor Allocation?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; demography; savings; time series models; cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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