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Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

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  • Ghassan, Hassan
  • Alhajhoj, Hassan R.
  • Balli, Faruk

Abstract

The paper aims to explore the impacts of bi-demographic structure on the current account and growth. Using a SVAR modeling, we track the dynamic impacts between these underlying variables. New insights have been developed about the dynamic interrelation between population growth, current account and economic growth. The long-run net impact on economic growth of the domestic working population growth and demand labor for emigrants is positive, due to the predominant contribution of skilled emigrant workers. Besides, the positive long-run contribution of emigrant workers to the current account growth largely compensates the negative contribution from the native population, because of the predominance of skilled compared to unskilled workforce. We find that a positive shock in demand labor for emigrant workers leads to an increasing effect on native active age ratio. Thus, the emigrants appear to be more complements than substitutes for native workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 93013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hybrid population; Current account; Growth; Structural modeling; Saudi Arabia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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