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Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections
[Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises]

Author

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  • Antoine Auberger

    (CRED - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the result of the firstround vote of the French legislative elections and the results in seats after the second round per department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of a popularity rating between the Left and the Right; and the economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the GDP growth rate, the inflation rate with more ambiguous results) to account for the first-round vote for the Left in the French legislative elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1986-2007) are satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts in vote and seats for the 2012 French legislative elections. We make some preliminary ex ante forecast in vote and in seats for the 2017 French legislative election.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections [Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480853, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03480853
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03480853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vote functions; legislative elections; election forecasting; popularity functions; panel data JEL Classification: C23; C53; D72;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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