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A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks

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  • Swanson, N.R.
  • White, H.

Abstract

We take a model selection approach to the question of whether a class of adaptive prediction models (artificial neural networks) is useful for predicting future values of nine macroeconomic variables. We use a variety of out-of-sample forecast-based model selection criteria, including forecast error measures and forecast direction accuracy. Ex ante or real-time forecasting results based on rolling window prediction methods indicate that multivariate adaptive linear vector autoregression models often outperform a variety of (1) adaptive and nonadaptive univariate models, (2) nonadaptive multivariate models, (3) adaptive nonlinear models, and (4) professionally available survey predictions. Further, model selection based on the in-sample Schwarz information criterion apparently fails to offer a convenient shortcut to true out-of-sample performance measures. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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  • Swanson, N.R. & White, H., 1995. "A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Papers 04-95-12, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:04-95-12
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    Keywords

    MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMIC FORECASTING;

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