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Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations

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  • Ray Fair

Abstract

This paper presents a computationally feasible procedure for the optimal control and stochastic simulation of large nonlinear models with rational expectations under the assumption of certainty equivalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Fair, 2001. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm202, Yale School of Management, revised 24 Sep 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm202
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    File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2596
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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    3. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1993. "Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
    5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    6. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    9. Amman, Hans & Kendrick, David, 1999. "Linear-Quadratic Optimization For Models With Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 534-543, December.
    10. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1995. "Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
    11. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    12. Todd E. Clark, 1994. "Nominal GDP targeting rules: can they stabilize the economy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 79(Q III), pages 11-25.
    13. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    14. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem & Samiei, S Hossein, 2000. "Solution of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models with Applications to Finite-Horizon Life-Cycle Models of Consumption," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(1-2), pages 25-57, April.
    15. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1985. "What would nominal GNP targetting do to the business cycle?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-84, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2013. "The Assessment Of Parameter Uncertainty In A Vector Error Correction Model For Romania," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 124-134, December.
    3. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2006. "The Linearisation and Optimal Control of Large Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models by Persistent Excitation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 139-153, September.
    8. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.
    9. Anderson, Evan W. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Small noise methods for risk-sensitive/robust economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 468-500.

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