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Recent Econometric Modeling of Crime and Punishment

Author

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  • Stephen S. Brier

    (University of Iowa)

  • Stephen E. Fienberg

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this article we review some recent attempts to develop econometric models for assessing the deterrent effect of punishment on crime, as well as analyses carried out to validate these models. The formulation of the basic econometric model considered here is due to Becker, and the detailed specification of the model, along with much of the empirical work reviewed, has been carried out by Ehrlich. We find serious flaws with the Becker- Ehrlich model, with the data used in its empirical implementation, and with Ehrlich's conclusions regarding evidence to support the deterrent effect of punishment on crime. Indeed, we can find no reliable empirical support in the existing economics literature either for or against the deterrence hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen S. Brier & Stephen E. Fienberg, 1980. "Recent Econometric Modeling of Crime and Punishment," Evaluation Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 147-191, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:4:y:1980:i:2:p:147-191
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8000400201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
    3. Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-451, June.
    4. Welsch, Roy E & Kuh, Edwin, 1976. "The Variances of Regression Coefficient Estimates Using Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 353-363, March.
    5. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-458, June.
    6. Block, M K & Heineke, J M, 1975. "A Labor Theoretic Analysis of the Criminal Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 314-325, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matti Viren, 2001. "Modelling crime and punishment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1869-1879.
    2. Benson, Bruce L. & Rasmussen, David W. & Mast, Brent D., 1999. "Deterring drunk driving fatalities: an economics of crime perspective1," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 205-225, June.
    3. Benson, Bruce L. & Rasmussen, David W. & Kim, Iljoong, 1998. "Deterrence and Public Policy: Trade-Offs in the Allocation of Police Resources," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, March.

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