IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberte/0078.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Ray C. Fair
  • John B. Taylor

Abstract

A computationally feasible method for the full information maximum likelihood estimation of models with rational expectations is described in this paper. The stochastic simulation of such models is also described. The methods discussed in this paper should open the way for many more tests of the rational expectations hypothesis within macroeconometric models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1991. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0078
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0078.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. De Long, James Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1031-1044, December.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
    5. Taylor, John B & Uhlig, Harald, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1989. "Policy Analysis With a Multicountry Model," NBER Working Papers 2881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    9. Parke, William R, 1982. "An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 81-95, January.
    10. King, Stephen R, 1988. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 0234-0234, March.
    11. Fair, Ray C. & Parke, William R., 1980. "Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 269-291, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
    2. Minford, Patrick & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2007. "Optimising Indexation Arrangements under Calvo Contracts and their Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Testing price equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1424-1437, November.
    4. Sergio Rey & Guy West & Mark Janikas, 2004. "Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-277.
    5. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    6. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-22.
    7. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.
    10. Yue Ma & Guy Meredith & Matthew S. Yiu, 2002. "A Currency Board Model of Hong Kong," Working Papers 012002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    12. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    13. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Testing Price Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1342, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
    16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November.
    17. Ray Fair, 2001. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm202, Yale School of Management, revised 24 Sep 2001.
    18. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.
    19. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Barrell, Ray & Dury, Karen & Hurst, Ian, 2003. "International monetary policy coordination: an evaluation using a large econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 507-527, May.
    21. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Ambler, Steven & Cardia, Emanuela & Phaneuf, Louis, 1992. "Contrats de salaire, croissance endogène et fluctuations," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 175-204, mars et j.
    4. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    5. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    6. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-22.
    7. David R.F. Love & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2004. "Anticipation and Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 0703, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
    8. Peter Woehrmann & Willi Semmler & Martin Lettau, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of the Time-varying Sharpe Ratio in Dynamic Asset Pricing Models," IEW - Working Papers 225, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Antle, John M. & Havenner, Arthur, 1983. "Formulating And Estimating Dynamic Stochastic Production Models," Working Papers 225711, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Ray C. Fair & Arnold Zellner (ary), 1992. "The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 133-157.
    12. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & C. Hoyt Bleakley, "undated". "Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 35, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Pizer, William A., 1999. "The optimal choice of climate change policy in the presence of uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 255-287, August.
    15. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    17. Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Estimating Nonseparable Preference Specifications for Asset Market Participants," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-12, CIRANO.
    18. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
    19. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 8-18, February.
    20. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.