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Kenneth F. Wallis

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Author Profile
    1. Ken Wallis at 75: Lessons in Life and Leadership by Mark Harrison
      by Mark Harrison in Mark Harrison's blog on 2013-07-14 01:20:28

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Turner, David S & Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1989. "Differences in the Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models: The Role of Labour Market Specifications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 317-344, Oct.-Dec..

    Mentioned in:

    1. Differences in the properties of large-scale macroeconometric models: The role of labour market specifications (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1989) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. James Mitchell & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 1023-1040, September.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2007. "Cointegration, Long-Run Structural Modelling And Weak Exogeneity: Two Models Of The Uk Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2007-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Accolley, Delali, 2018. "Accounting for Busines Cycles in Canada: II. The Role of Money," MPRA Paper 85481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Leonardo Gambacorta & Adrian Van Rixtel & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "Changing business models in international bank funding," BIS Working Papers 614, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Zuzana LAJDOVÁ & Peter BIELIK, 2015. "The evidence of asymmetric price adjustments," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 105-115.
    6. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    7. Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2010. "Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(1), pages 35-77, mars.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2011. "Public and Private Investment in Saudi Economy: Evidence from Weak Exogeneity and Bound Cointegration Tests," MPRA Paper 56537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jimmy Lockwood & Larry Lockwood & Sie Ting Lau, 2016. "Lost In Translation: Which Stock Prices Bear The Burden To Adjust To Exchange Rates?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 263-290, September.

  2. Wallis, Kenneth, 2006. "A note on the calculation of entropy from histograms," MPRA Paper 52856, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    3. Henry Chacon & Anuradha Roy, 2017. "Piecewise Solutions to Big Data," Working Papers o156mss, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.

  3. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    3. Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2012. "Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 53-62.
    4. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    5. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2013. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," NBP Working Papers 140, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Smietanka, Pawel & Bloom, Nicholas & Mizen, Paul, 2018. "Business investment, cash holding and uncertainty since the Great Financial Crisis," Bank of England working papers 753, Bank of England.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1997. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 581, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ganwen Zheng & Songping Zhu, 2021. "Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Macro Control Policy on Output and Technological Progress under Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-04141344, HAL.
    12. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    14. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
    15. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2012. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2012, Bank of Finland.
    16. Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    19. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
    20. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & do Nascimento Valladares, Matheus, 2024. "The effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    22. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    23. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Working Papers 688, DNB.
    24. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    25. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    27. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    28. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    29. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies," Working Papers 2018-11, Swiss National Bank.
    30. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
    31. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    32. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    33. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    34. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    35. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
    36. Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
    38. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2014. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 69-81, February.
    39. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    40. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    41. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2015. "Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever," Working Paper 15-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    42. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    43. David Iselin & Andreas Dibiasi, 2019. "Measuring Knightian Uncertainty," KOF Working papers 19-456, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    44. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
    45. Liu, Yang & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2019. "The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 967-979.
    46. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    47. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    48. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Luna, Paulo Henrique, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 100-116.
    49. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.
    50. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    51. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    52. Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    53. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    54. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    55. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    56. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    57. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    58. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    59. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Acar, Tatiana, 2020. "Fiscal credibility, target revisions and disagreement in expectations about fiscal results," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 38-58.
    60. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    61. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    62. Joshua C C Chan & Yong Song, 2017. "Measuring inflation expectations uncertainty using high-frequency data," CAMA Working Papers 2017-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    63. Casey, Eddie, 2020. "Do macroeconomic forecasters use macroeconomics to forecast?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1439-1453.
    64. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy on M&A outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    65. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
    66. Macallan, Clare & Taylor, Tim & O'Grady, Tom, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.
    67. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    68. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans," KOF Working papers 16-406, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    69. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.
    70. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
    71. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    72. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    73. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 277-291.
    74. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    75. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
    76. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    77. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    78. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2014. "Impact of uncertainty on high frequency response of the U.S. stock markets to the Fed's policy surprises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 382-392.
    79. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
    80. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    81. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    82. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.
    83. Gabriel C Montes & Caio F Ferreira, 2022. "Monetary policy opacity and disagreements in expectations about variables under central bank control," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 703-721.
    84. Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014. "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers 797, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    85. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    86. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2019. "Firms' Subjective Uncertainty and Forecast Errors," Discussion papers 19055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    87. Harimohan, Rashmi, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    88. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 5887, CESifo.
    89. Maxime Phillot & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2024. "Order Matters: An Experimental Study on How Question Ordering Affects Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(3), pages 63-114, July.
    90. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014, Bank of Finland.
    91. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    92. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    93. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    94. Masayuki Morikawa, 2016. "What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 527-540, December.
    95. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    96. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    97. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    98. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    99. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    100. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, 2014. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 463-475, February.
    101. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Simão Filho, José & Abreu, Vanessa Castro, 2023. "Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    102. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    103. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    104. Firrell, Alastair & Reinold, Kate, 2020. "Uncertainty and voting on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee," Bank of England working papers 898, Bank of England.

  4. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Menezes, Mozart B.C. & da Silveira, Giovani J.C. & Guimarães, Renato, 2018. "Estimating demand variability and capacity costs due to social network influence: The hidden cost of connection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 317-329.
    2. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
    3. Gordon Anderson, 2008. "The empirical assessment of multidimensional welfare, inequality and poverty: Sample weighted multivariate generalizations of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two sample tests for stochastic dominance," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, March.
    4. Bontemps, Christian, 2014. "Simple moment-based tests for value-at-risk models and discrete distribution," TSE Working Papers 14-535, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Hasebe, Takuya & Vijverberg, Wim P., 2012. "A Flexible Sample Selection Model: A GTL-Copula Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 7003, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Bontemps, Christian, 2013. "Moment-Based Tests for Discrete Distributions," IDEI Working Papers 772, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Oct 2014.

  5. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2004. "Comparing Empirical Models of the Euro Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 14, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3627, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    5. Jerome Henry & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1241-1319, Elsevier.
    7. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    8. Michał Majsterek & Aleksander Welfe, 2012. "Price-wage nexus and the role of a tax system," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 121-133, February.
    9. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2010. "Global financial crisis: The French policy answer in an EU perspective," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03414186, HAL.
    10. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    11. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Amela Hubic & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and Cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," BCL working papers 40, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    12. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    13. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    14. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    15. Heilemann, Ullrich & Findeis, Hagen, 2012. "Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 158-165.
    16. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948, Fall.
    17. Henry, Jérôme & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 396, European Central Bank.
    18. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
    19. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Kurt Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy," KOF Working papers 10-253, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    20. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

  6. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    3. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
    4. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    6. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
    7. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "Too Good to be True? The (In)credibility of the UK Inflation Fan Charts," Occasional Papers 11, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
    8. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    10. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 1209, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    12. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Jaouad MADKOUR, 2011. "Testing Interval Forecasts: A New GMM-based Test," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1549, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models: A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269476, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    16. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CREATES Research Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    18. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    19. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," CAMA Working Papers 2010-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 342, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    21. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    22. Timo Terasvirta & Clive W.J Granger & Andrew Patton, 2003. "Common factors in conditional distributions for Bivariate time series," FMG Discussion Papers dp455, Financial Markets Group.
    23. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2014. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 163-185, April.
    24. Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    26. Mark Harris & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2011. "A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 413-442, March.
    27. Paul E. Carrillo & Eric R. Wit & William Larson, 2015. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 609-651, September.
    28. Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "Too good to be true? The (In)credibility of the UK inflation fan charts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-102, March.
    29. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    30. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
    31. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank?s Inflation Density Forecasts," Occasional Papers 10, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
    32. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    33. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Matei Demetrescu, 2007. "Optimal forecast intervals under asymmetric loss," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 227-238.
    35. Klinger, Sabine & Heilemann, Ullrich, 2005. "Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen," Technical Reports 2005,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    36. Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek & Thomson, Mary, 2010. "Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 195-201, August.
    37. Peñaranda, Francisco, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    38. Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Jaouad Madkour, 2013. "Testing Interval Forecasts: a GMM-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-01385898, HAL.
    39. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
    40. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    41. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    42. G. Boero & J. Smith & KF. Wallis, 2002. "The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests," Working Paper CRENoS 200209, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    43. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    44. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
    45. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    46. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
    47. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 541-557.
    48. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    49. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Decompositions of Pearson's chi-squared test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 189-193, November.
    50. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
    51. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, November.
    52. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
    53. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adél Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(1), pages 121-148, April.
    54. Kostas Mouratidis & Dimitris Kenourgios & Aris Samitas, 2010. "Evaluating currency crisis:A multivariate Markov switching approach," Working Papers 2010018, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    55. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    56. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173.
    57. Li, Yushu & Andersson, Jonas, 2014. "A Likelihood Ratio and Markov Chain Based Method to Evaluate Density Forecasting," Discussion Papers 2014/12, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    58. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
    59. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2012. "A simple approach to standardized-residuals-based higher-moment tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 427-453.
    60. Bratu, Mihaela, 2013. "The Assessment And Improvement Of The Accuracy For The Forecast Intervals," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 132602, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    61. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
    62. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    64. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    66. Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.
    67. Freeland, R. K. & McCabe, B. P. M., 2004. "Forecasting discrete valued low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 427-434.
    68. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    69. Jorge Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2020. "Back testing fan charts of activity and inflation: the Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 881, Central Bank of Chile.
    70. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    71. Caraiani, Petre, 2016. "The role of money in DSGE models: a forecasting perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 315-330.
    72. Goodhart, Charles, 2005. "An essay on the interactions between the Bank of England's forecasts, the MPC's policy adjustments, and the eventual outcome," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    73. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
    74. Heilemann Ullrich, 2004. "Besser geht’s nicht – Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen / As Good as it Gets – Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(1-2), pages 51-64, February.

  7. Jacobs, Jan & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: more shocking stories," Research Report 02C56, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

    Cited by:

    1. Willem J.H. van Groenendaal, 2011. "Energy Model and Policy Advice: The Effect of Model Choice," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.

  8. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2002. "The Properties Of Some Goodness-Of-Fit Tests," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 653, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models: A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269476, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Decompositions of Pearson's chi-squared test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 189-193, November.
    3. G. Marletto, 2006. "La politica dei trasporti come politica per l'innovazione: spunti da un approccio evolutivo," Working Paper CRENoS 200605, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    4. OA Carboni & G Medda, 2007. "Government Size and the Composition of Public Spending in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Working Paper CRENoS 200701, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

  9. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    3. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    4. Luisa Bisaglia & Matteo Grigoletto, 2018. "A new time-varying model for forecasting long-memory series," Papers 1812.07295, arXiv.org.
    5. Niguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6845, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Alquier Pierre & Li Xiaoyin & Wintenberger Olivier, 2013. "Prediction of time series by statistical learning: general losses and fast rates," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2013), pages 65-93, January.
    7. George A. Krause, 2006. "Beyond the Norm," Rationality and Society, , vol. 18(2), pages 157-191, May.
    8. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2008. "Can Consumer Sentiment and Its Components Forecast Australian GDP and Consumption?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    10. Hua, Zhongsheng & Zhang, Bin, 2008. "Improving density forecast by modeling asymmetric features: An application to S&P500 returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 716-725, March.
    11. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society.
    12. Gambacciani, Marco & Paolella, Marc S., 2017. "Robust normal mixtures for financial portfolio allocation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 91-111.
    13. Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    14. Pascual, Lorenzo & Fresoli, Diego Eduardo, 2011. "Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws113426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 03/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    16. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    17. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for power-transformed time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 219-235.
    18. Raunig, Burkhard, 2006. "The longer-horizon predictability of German stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 363-372.
    19. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Joao Henrique Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2017. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities," Working Papers 201709, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    20. Vacca, Gianmarco & Zoia, Maria Grazia & Bagnato, Luca, 2022. "Forecasting in GARCH models with polynomially modified innovations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-141.
    21. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    22. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling Latin-American stock and Forex markets volatility: Empirical application of a model with random level shifts and genuine long memory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 393-420.
    23. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.
    24. Mr. Prakash Kannan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart," IMF Working Papers 2009/178, International Monetary Fund.
    25. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Debidutta Pattnaik, 2021. "Research constituents, intellectual structure, and collaboration pattern in the Journal of Forecasting: A bibliometric analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 577-602, July.
    26. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    27. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2007. "Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," MPRA Paper 9790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2008.
    28. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
    29. Nalban, Valeriu, 2018. "Forecasting with DSGE models: What frictions are important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-204.
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    31. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models: A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269476, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
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    4. Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004. "Weather forecasting for weather derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Alquier Pierre & Li Xiaoyin & Wintenberger Olivier, 2013. "Prediction of time series by statistical learning: general losses and fast rates," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2013), pages 65-93, January.
    6. Richhild Moessner & Feng Zhu & Colin Ellis, 2011. "Measuring disagreement in UK consumer and central bank inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 339, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bharat Barot, 2004. "How accurate are the Swedish forecasters on GDB-Growth, CPI-inflation and unemployment? (1993 - 2001)," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(2), pages 249-278.
    9. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-079, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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    12. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2007. "Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," MPRA Paper 9790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2008.
    13. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    16. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gabriela de Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 59, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    18. Arrieta-Prieto, Mario & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasting of wind power for multiple farms: A copula-based hybrid model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 300-320.
    19. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    20. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    21. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    23. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2008. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models," MPRA Paper 13662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Barot, Bharat, 2007. "Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers 98, National Institute of Economic Research.
    25. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    26. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
    27. Norman R. Swanson & Lili Cai, 2011. "In- and Out-of-Sample Specification Analysis of Spot Rate Models: Further Evidence for the Period 1982-2008," Departmental Working Papers 201102, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    28. G. Boero & J. Smith & KF. Wallis, 2002. "The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests," Working Paper CRENoS 200209, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    29. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    30. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    31. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    32. Diep Duong & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Density and Conditional Distribution Based Specification Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 201312, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    33. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    34. Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
    35. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    36. Jordi Pons, 2001. "The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 287-290.
    37. G. Ascari & E. Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    38. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
    39. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers 269880, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    40. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    41. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
    42. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers 72, National Institute of Economic Research.

  11. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1984. "Calculating the Variance of Seasonally Adjusted Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 251, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Siem Jan Koopman & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time‐varying Confidence Intervals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 509-526, December.
    2. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. William P. Cleveland, 2002. "Estimated variance of seasonally adjusted series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
    5. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Working Papers 9608, Banco de España.

  12. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1983. "Signal Extraction in Nonstationary Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 234, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  13. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1983. "Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 244, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    1. McElroy Tucker S, 2010. "A Nonlinear Algorithm for Seasonal Adjustment in Multiplicative Component Decompositions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10058, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco J. Lombardi, 2008. "The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 257-278.
    4. Crafts, N.F.R. & Leybourne, S.J. & Mills, T.C., 1988. "Economic Growth In Nineteeth Century Britain: Comparisons With Europe In The Context Of Gerschenkron'S Hypotheses," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 308, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
    6. Tom�s del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2016. "The Performance of Lag Selection and Detrending Methods for HEGY Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 122-168, January.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
    10. Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2008. "Retrieving seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates from annual growth rates that are reported quarterly," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(3), pages 846-853, August.
    11. Matas Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R, 2004. "Seasonal adjustment and the detection of business cycle phases," Working Paper Series 357, European Central Bank.
    12. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "Notes on Time Series Analysis, ARIMA Models and Signal Extraction," Working Papers 0012, Banco de España.
    13. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Josef Arlt, 2023. "The problem of annual inflation rate indicator," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2772-2788, July.
    15. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
    16. Álvarez, Luis J. & Delrieu, Juan C., 1992. "Aproximación lineal por tramos a comportamientos no lineales: estimación de señales de nivel y crecimiento," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 2940, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Eric Ghysels & Clive W.J. Granger & Pierre L. Siklos, 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtering Process?," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-19, CIRANO.
    18. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
    19. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Random Walk through Seasonal Adjustment: Noninvertible Moving Averages and Unit Root Tests," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0612, Economics, The University of Manchester.

  14. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1981. "Dynamic Models and Expectations Hypotheses," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 187, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Junior, Renato Galvão Flôres & Szafarz, Ariane, 1992. "Minimal identification of dynamic rational expectations systems," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 46(3), July.

  15. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1981. "Models for X-11 and 'X-11-Forecast' Procedures for Preliminary and Revised Seasonal Adjustments," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 198, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. D. Stephen G. Pollock, 2018. "Filters, Waves and Spectra," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-33, July.
    2. Luati, Alessandra & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "On the Equivalence of the Weighted Least Squares and the Generalised Least Squares Estimators, with Applications to Kernel Smoothing," MPRA Paper 8910, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  16. Salmon, Mark & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Model Validation and Forecast Comparisons : Theoretical and Practical Considerations," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 184, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Papers 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 2249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Articles

  1. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2015. "The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1029-1046, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    2. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    4. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Koga, Maiko & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2020. "Private information and analyst coverage: Evidence from firm survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 284-298.
    5. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    7. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm level expectations and macroeconomic conditions underpinnings and disagreement," Working Papers 11058, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Hana Braitsch & James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation," Working Papers 24-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    11. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
    12. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
    13. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    17. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    18. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
    19. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
    21. Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
    22. Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    23. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    24. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    25. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    26. Firrell, Alastair & Reinold, Kate, 2020. "Uncertainty and voting on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee," Bank of England working papers 898, Bank of England.

  2. James Mitchell & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 1023-1040, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecaster’s utility and forecasts coherence," CREATES Research Papers 2018-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    3. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    5. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
    6. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    7. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    8. Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    9. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts," Discussion Papers 11/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Joao Henrique Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2017. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities," Working Papers 201709, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    12. Matteo Mogliani & Anna Simoni, 2020. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Post-Print hal-03089878, HAL.
    13. Andres, P. & Harvey, A., 2012. "The Dyanamic Location/Scale Model: with applications to intra-day financial data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1240, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Andres, Philipp, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimates for positive valued dynamic score models; The DySco package," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 34-42.
    15. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
    16. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling Latin-American stock and Forex markets volatility: Empirical application of a model with random level shifts and genuine long memory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 393-420.
    17. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2014. "Forecasting with DSGE models with financial frictions," Dynare Working Papers 40, CEPREMAP.
    18. Mansoor Maitah & Daniel Toth & Elena Kuzmenko & Karel r dl & Helena Rezbov & Petra nov, 2016. "Forecast of Employment in Switzerland: The Macroeconomic View," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 132-138.
    19. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
    20. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
    21. Nalban, Valeriu, 2018. "Forecasting with DSGE models: What frictions are important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-204.
    22. Ito, Ryoko, 2013. "Modeling Dynamic Diurnal Patterns in High-Frequency Financial Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1315, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    23. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    24. Harvey, Andrew & Palumbo, Dario, 2023. "Score-driven models for realized volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    25. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    26. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    28. Taylor, James W., 2020. "A strategic predictive distribution for tests of probabilistic calibration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1380-1388.
    29. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Wojciech CHAREMZA & Carlos DÍAZ & Svetlana MAKAROVA, 2019. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-18, March.
    31. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    32. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    33. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    34. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Density Forecasts for US Output and Inflation," Working Papers 715, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    36. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    37. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    38. Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices – You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," Working Papers 2020:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
    40. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    41. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2012. "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 27(3), pages 115-132.
    42. Djennad, Abdelmajid & Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios & Eilers, Paul, 2015. "Beyond location and dispersion models: The Generalized Structural Time Series Model with Applications," MPRA Paper 62807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    44. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2014. "Evaluating predictive densities of US output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 662-682.
    45. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02505861, HAL.
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    48. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    49. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, November.
    50. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
    51. Justyna Wróblewska & Anna Pajor, 2019. "One-period joint forecasts of Polish inflation, unemployment and interest rate using Bayesian VEC-MSF models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(1), pages 23-45, March.
    52. Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    53. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    54. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
    55. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    56. Todd E. Clark & Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2015(03), pages 1-6, March.
    57. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
    58. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Online Appendix to "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"," Online Appendices 14-103, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    59. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    61. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    62. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.
    64. Jorge Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2020. "Back testing fan charts of activity and inflation: the Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 881, Central Bank of Chile.
    65. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
    66. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  3. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    2. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2019. "Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations," Working Papers 0664, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    4. Hana Braitsch & James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation," Working Papers 24-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    6. Corona Francisco & Horrillo Juan de Dios Tena & Wiper Michael Peter, 2017. "On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive games in a tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 11-23, March.
    7. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    8. David Harris & Gael M. Martin & Indeewara Perera & Don S. Poskitt, 2017. "Construction and visualization of optimal confidence sets for frequentist distributional forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Michael K. Adjemian & Valentina G. Bruno & Michel A. Robe, 2020. "Incorporating Uncertainty into USDA Commodity Price Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 696-712, March.
    10. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
    11. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2018. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Working Papers 2018-16, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Constandina Koki & Loukia Meligkotsidou & Ioannis Vrontos, 2020. "Forecasting under model uncertainty: Non‐homogeneous hidden Markov models with Pòlya‐Gamma data augmentation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 580-598, July.
    14. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
    15. Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    17. Ng, Jason & Forbes, Catherine S. & Martin, Gael M. & McCabe, Brendan P.M., 2013. "Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian, non-linear state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 411-430.
    18. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    19. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    20. BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & MATSUOKA Hideaki, 2013. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to ESPF," ESRI Discussion paper series 302, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    22. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
    23. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    24. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.

  4. Kenneth Wallis, 2011. "Combining forecasts - forty years later," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 33-41.

    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    3. João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2017. "Combining Multivariate Volatility Forecasts: An Economic-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 247-285.
    4. Gianni Amisano & John Geweke, 2017. "Prediction Using Several Macroeconomic Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 912-925, December.
    5. Yi-Ting Chen & Chu-An Liu, 2021. "Model Averaging for Asymptotically Optimal Combined Forecasts," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 21-A002, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    6. Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Working Papers 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    9. Jakub Nowotarski & Bidong Liu & Rafal Weron & Tao Hong, 2015. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    10. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2013. "Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity," ERES eres2013_10, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    12. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017. "Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
    13. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Önkal, Dilek & Gönül, M. Sinan, 2019. "Combining forecasts: Performance and coherence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 474-484.
    14. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    15. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA forecast averaging - predicting day-ahead and intraday electricity prices," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/02, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    16. Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    19. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Yang, Dazhi & Yang, Guoming & Liu, Bai, 2023. "Combining quantiles of calibrated solar forecasts from ensemble numerical weather prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    21. Zongwu Cai & Chaoqun Ma & Xianhua Mi, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting Based on Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202016, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
    22. Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    24. Valeria Croce & Karl Wöber & John Kester, 2016. "Expert identification and calibration for collective forecasting tasks," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 979-994, October.
    25. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    26. David A. Mascio & Frank J. Fabozzi & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2021. "Market timing using combined forecasts and machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 1-16, January.
    27. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    29. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
    30. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    31. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2014. "Improving The Inflation Rate Forecasts Of Romanian Experts Using A Fixed-Effects Models Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 13, pages 87-102, June.
    32. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    33. Silviu Pitis & Michael R. Zhang, 2020. "Objective Social Choice: Using Auxiliary Information to Improve Voting Outcomes," Papers 2001.10092, arXiv.org.
    34. Kamiński, Bogumił, 2015. "A method for the updating of stochastic kriging metamodels," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 859-866.
    35. Alexander Frenkel A. & Natalia Volkova N. & Anton Surkov A. & Александр Френкель Адольфович & Наталия Волкова Николаевна & Антон Сурков Александрович, 2017. "Повышение точности прогнозирования интегральных показателей на основе объединения прогнозов // Improving the Prediction Accuracy of the Integral Indicators by the Means of Combining Forecasts," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(5), pages 118-127.
    36. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    37. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    38. Saghafian, Soroush & Tomlin, Brian & Biller, Stephan, 2018. "The Internet of Things and Information Fusion: Who Talks to Who?," Working Paper Series rwp18-009, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    39. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
    40. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    41. K=osaku Takanashi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2019. "Equivariant online predictions of non-stationary time series," Papers 1911.08662, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.

  5. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, June.

    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2022. "Combining Forecasts under Structural Breaks Using Graphical LASSO," Papers 2209.01697, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, April.
    8. Benjamin Avanzi & Yanfeng Li & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2022. "Ensemble distributional forecasting for insurance loss reserving," Papers 2206.08541, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    9. Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    10. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    11. Yi-Ting Chen & Chu-An Liu, 2021. "Model Averaging for Asymptotically Optimal Combined Forecasts," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 21-A002, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    12. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
    13. Racine Ly & Fousseini Traore & Khadim Dia, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks," Papers 2101.03087, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    14. Blanc, Sebastian M. & Setzer, Thomas, 2016. "When to choose the simple average in forecast combination," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 3951-3962.
    15. Roccazzella, Francesco & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2021. "Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021014, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    16. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    17. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    18. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Fotios Petropoulos & Feng Li, 2022. "Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: bias, accuracy and inventory implications," Papers 2204.08283, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    20. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    21. Gerda Claeskens & Jan Magnus & Andrey Vasnev & Wendun Wang, 2016. "The forecast combination puzzle: a simple theoretical explanation," Working Papers of Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven 532152, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven.
    22. Tao Lin & Yiling Chen, 2022. "Sample Complexity of Forecast Aggregation," Papers 2207.13126, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    23. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
    24. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    25. Pritularga, Kandrika F. & Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2021. "Stochastic coherency in forecast reconciliation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    26. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017. "A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Papers halshs-01317974, HAL.
    27. Nikolaos Kourentzes & George Athanasopoulos, 2018. "Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    28. Graziano Moramarco, 2021. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," Papers 2111.00822, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    29. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Alexandra Bozhechkova & Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "CLARA and CARLSON: Combination of Ensemble and Neural Network Machine Learning Methods for GDP Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(3), pages 45-69, September.
    31. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
    33. Strand, Jon & Carson, Richard T. & Navrud, Stale & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Vincent, Jeffrey R., 2017. "Using the Delphi method to value protection of the Amazon rainforest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 475-484.
    34. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    35. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    36. Clements, Adam & Vasnev, Andrey, 2021. "Forecast combination puzzle in the HAR model," Working Papers BAWP-2021-01, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    37. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Paper series 17_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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    39. Graham Elliott, 2017. "Forecast combination when outcomes are difficult to predict," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 7-20, August.
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    108. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
    109. Wei Qian & Craig A. Rolling & Gang Cheng & Yuhong Yang, 2015. "On the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Papers 1505.00475, arXiv.org.
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    115. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Xu, Jin & Zhang, Zehui, 2022. "Oil futures volatility predictability: New evidence based on machine learning models11All the authors contribute to the paper equally," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    116. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    117. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Working Papers 2010-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    118. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
    119. Zhentao Shi & Liangjun Su & Tian Xie, 2020. "L2-Relaxation: With Applications to Forecast Combination and Portfolio Analysis," Papers 2010.09477, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    120. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
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    126. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2022. "Forecast combination for VARs in large N and T panels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 142-164.
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  7. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017. "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 784-794, November.
    2. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2014. "Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 177-191.
    3. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    5. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    6. Matei Demetrescu & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 287-297, April.
    7. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
    8. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
    9. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), 2015. "Evaluating the economic forecasts of FOMC members," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 165-175.
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
    12. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank forecasts influence private agents? Forecasting Performance vs. Signals," Post-Print hal-03399242, HAL.
    13. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
    14. Haberis, Alex & Masolo, Riccardo & Reinold, Kate, 2016. "Deflation probability and the scope for monetary loosening in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 627, Bank of England.
    15. Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Ruelke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201201, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    16. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.

  9. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth Wallis, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Tests to the Partitioning of Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 341-370.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.

    Cited by:

    1. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3627, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Sunde, Tafirenyika & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2015. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," MPRA Paper 86578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    4. Mehmood, Sultan, 2013. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 44546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    6. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2013. "A Monte Carlo test for the identifying assumptions of the Blanchard and Quah (1989) model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 601-605, April.
    7. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    8. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2010. "What Explains Changes in the Level of Abuse Against Civilians during the Peruvian Civil War?," Working Papers 1003, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    9. Pool, Sebastiaan & de Haan, Leo & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2015. "Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-136.

  11. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Pauwels, Laurent & Radchenko, Peter & Vasnev, Andrey, 2019. "Higher Moment Constraints for Predictive Density Combinations," Working Papers BAWP-2019-01, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    4. Jagjit Chadha, 2016. "The New Art of Central Banking," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 472, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
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    9. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    40. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, June.
    41. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
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    43. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    44. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    45. Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    47. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
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    49. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 277-291.
    50. Qian, Wei & Rolling, Craig A. & Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2022. "Combining forecasts for universally optimal performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 193-208.
    51. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
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    53. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
    54. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
    55. Reason Lesego Machete, 2011. "Early Warning with Calibrated and Sharper Probabilistic Forecasts," Papers 1112.6390, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
    56. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    57. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
    58. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
    59. Roberto Casarin & Giulia Mantoan & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    60. Tao Hong & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging of independent expert forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    61. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
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    66. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    68. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    69. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
    70. Timo Henckel & Shaun Vahey & Liz Wakerly, 2011. "Probabilistic interest rate setting with a shadow board: A description of the pilot project," CAMA Working Papers 2011-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    71. Li, Gang & Wu, Doris Chenguang & Zhou, Menglin & Liu, Anyu, 2019. "The combination of interval forecasts in tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 363-378.
    72. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    73. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
    74. P. Schanbacher, 2014. "Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 423-452, October.
    75. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.

  12. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Decompositions of Pearson's chi-squared test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 189-193, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

  13. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2004. "An Assessment of Bank of England and National Institute Inflation Forecast Uncertainties," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 64-71, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
    2. Hua, Zhongsheng & Zhang, Bin, 2008. "Improving density forecast by modeling asymmetric features: An application to S&P500 returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 716-725, March.
    3. Carlos Diaz Vela, 2016. "Extracting the Information Shocks from the Bank of England Inflation Density Forecasts," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/13, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    4. Doaa Akl Ahmed, 2011. "Modelling the Density of Inflation Using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Skewness, and Kurtosis Models," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-28, November.
    5. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "Too Good to be True? The (In)credibility of the UK Inflation Fan Charts," Occasional Papers 11, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
    6. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts," Discussion Papers 11/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2018. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks' inflation outlooks," Discussion Papers 56/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269751, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    14. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling Latin-American stock and Forex markets volatility: Empirical application of a model with random level shifts and genuine long memory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 393-420.
    15. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis: A case of the Sierra Leone Economy," MPRA Paper 88853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Sep 2018.
    16. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
    18. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
    19. Wojciech CHAREMZA & Carlos DÍAZ & Svetlana MAKAROVA, 2019. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-18, March.
    20. Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "Too good to be true? The (In)credibility of the UK inflation fan charts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-102, March.
    21. Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank?s Inflation Density Forecasts," Occasional Papers 10, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
    23. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    24. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015. "Choosing the Right Skew Normal Distribution: the Macroeconomist’ Dilemma," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/08, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    27. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
    28. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
    29. Kevin Dowd, 2007. "Validating multiple-period density-forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 251-270.
    30. Colin Ellis, 2017. "Scenario-based stress tests: are they painful enough?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 11(2), June.
    31. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    32. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    33. Cronin, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2011. "Fiscal fan charts - A tool for assessing member states’ (likely?) compliance with EU fiscal rules," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    34. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
    35. Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
    36. Lundholm, Michael, 2010. "Sveriges Riksbank's Inflation Interval Forecasts 1999-2005," Research Papers in Economics 2010:11, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    37. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    38. Doaa Akl Ahmed & Mamdouh M. Abdelsalam, 2015. "Modelling the Density of Egyptian Quarterly CPI Inflation," Working Papers 936, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2015.
    39. Jorge Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2020. "Back testing fan charts of activity and inflation: the Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 881, Central Bank of Chile.
    40. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    41. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.

  14. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Keith B. Church & Joanne E. Sault & Silvia Sgherri & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171(1), pages 106-122, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2003. "Interactions between large macro models and time series analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
    3. J T Kneeshaw, 1995. "A survey of non-financial sector balance sheets in industialised countries: implications for the monetary policy transmission mechanism," BIS Working Papers 25, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. de Kam, C. A. & de Haan, J. & Giles, C. & Manresa, A. & Berenguer, E. & Calonge, S., 1996. "Who pays the taxes?," MPRA Paper 7146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
      • C. A. de Kam & J. de Haan & C. Giles & A. Manresa & E. Berenguer & S. Calonge & J. Merz, 1996. "Who pays the taxes?," FFB-Discussionpaper 18, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    5. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    6. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    7. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    8. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    9. Jerome Henry & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2016. "Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 20-35, January.
    11. J. 0. N. Perkins, 1991. "Possible Policies for Expansion," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 4-15, July.
    12. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Bjarni G. Einarsson & Magnús F. Guðmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Signý Sigmundardóttir & Jósef Sigurðarson & Rósa Sveinsdóttir, 2015. "QMM - A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp71, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    14. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    15. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
    16. Sebastian Gechert, 2013. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 117-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
    18. Patrizio Lecca & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2014. "Balanced Budget Multipliers For Small Open Regions Within A Federal System: Evidence From The Scottish Variable Rate Of Income Tax," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 402-421, June.
    19. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    20. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 2010. "Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-47, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    21. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1993. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 113-130, June.
    22. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    23. Chamberlin, G. & Henry, S. G. B. & Satchi, M., 2003. "A model of the G-3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1083-1095, December.
    24. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    25. Church, Keith B. & Mitchell, Peter R. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1996. "Targeting inflation: Comparative control exercises on models of the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 169-184, April.
    26. K.F. Wallis, 1992. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Modeling," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    27. Darby, Julia & Ireland, Jonathan & Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1998. "COMPACT: a rational expectations, intertemporal model of the United Kingdom economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-52, January.
    28. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
    29. Philip Arestis & Kevin McCauley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2000. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Macroeconomics 0004043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Analyzing MeMo-It supply side properties," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 57-64.
    31. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & David Tuerck, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Growth and Income Distribution in the UK and the US," EcoMod2015 8607, EcoMod.

  17. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Fabrice Capoen & Pascal Cussy & Hélène Lenoble-Liaud, 2003. "How to Manage Financial Shocks: Intra-European vs. International Monetary Coordination," Post-Print hal-03416786, HAL.
    2. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    4. Duarte, Margarida & Wolman, Alexander L., 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," Working Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    5. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    6. Jérôme Creel, 2002. "Strategic interactions between monetary and fiscal policies: a case study for the European Stability Pact," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972776, HAL.
    7. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.
    9. Estrada, Ángel & Willman, Alpo, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
    10. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2022. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean‐Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
    12. Johnson, Richard, 2003. "A comparison of the constant-tax rule and a standard fiscal reaction rule in the IMF's MULTIMOD model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 639-653, September.
    13. Evi Pappa, 2005. "The Unbearable Tightness of Being in a Monetary Union: Fiscal Restrictions and Regional Stability"," Working Papers 294, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Florence Huart & Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen, 2006. "Chocs et règles de politique économique en UEM," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 43-63.
    16. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Discussion Papers 47/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Giovanni Ganelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy Rules in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Labour Supply," Trinity Economics Papers 200215, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    19. Kinnunen, Helvi, 2008. "Government funds and demographic transition: alleviating ageing costs in a small open economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland.
    20. Richard L. Johnson, 2001. "Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    21. von Thadden, Leopold & Lipińska, Anna, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy aspects of indirect tax changes in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 1097, European Central Bank.
    22. Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 25/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Natascha Hinterlang, 2023. "Effects of Carbon Pricing in Germany and Spain: An Assessment with EMuSe," Working Papers 2328, Banco de España.
    24. Hiebert, Paul & Pérez, Javier J. & Rostagno, Massimo, 2009. "The trade-off between public debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 464-472, March.
    25. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    26. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    27. Dury, K. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "Fiscal Policy in EMU: Simulating the Operation of the Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers eco2000/3, European University Institute.
    28. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2021. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 50/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948, Fall.
    30. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
    31. Duarte, Margarida & Wolman, Alexander L., 2008. "Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 384-401, March.
    32. Silvia Sgherri, 2002. "The fiscal dimension of a common monetary policy: results with a non-Ricardian global model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 449-479.
    33. Frank Bohn, 2005. "Maastricht criteria versus stability pact," Working Papers 200506, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    34. Carnot, Nicolas, 2003. "SMILE: a small macro-econometric model of the French economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 69-92, January.
    35. A J Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2001. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits: A Stochastic Analysis of the Stability Pact," Studies in Economics 0101, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    36. Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: Options for international cooperation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    37. Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 407-434, November.
    38. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.

  18. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1999. "Asymmetric density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England's fan chart," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 167(1), pages 106-112, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1689, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
    3. Yim, Ha-Neul & Riddell, Jordan R. & Wheeler, Andrew P., 2020. "Is the recent increase in national homicide abnormal? Testing the application of fan charts in monitoring national homicide trends over time," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Kemp, Gordon C.R. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012. "Regression towards the mode," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 92-101.
    5. Chao, Shih-Kang & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Yuan, Ming, 2020. "Factorisable Multitask Quantile Regression," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-004, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    6. Hua, Zhongsheng & Zhang, Bin, 2008. "Improving density forecast by modeling asymmetric features: An application to S&P500 returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 716-725, March.
    7. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society.
    8. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2018. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks' inflation outlooks," Discussion Papers 56/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
    11. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    12. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-30, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2004. "Optimal Policy with Low-Probability Extreme Events," CEPR Discussion Papers 4218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 413-457, Elsevier.
    16. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    18. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2003. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 533, Stockholm School of Economics.
    19. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    20. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    21. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    22. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    23. Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "Too good to be true? The (In)credibility of the UK inflation fan charts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-102, March.
    24. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    25. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Romanus, Eduardo E. & Silva, Eugênio & Goldschmidt, Ronaldo R., 2024. "Empirical probabilistic forecasting: An approach solely based on deterministic explanatory variables for the selection of past forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 184-201.
    27. Kenneth W. Clements & H.Y Izan & Yihui Lan, 2005. "A Stochastic Measure of International Competitiveness," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    28. Ali Al‐Nowaihi & Livio Stracca, 2003. "Behavioural Central Bank Loss Functions, Skewed Risks and Certainty Equivalence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(s1), pages 21-38, September.
    29. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    30. G. Boero & J. Smith & KF. Wallis, 2002. "The properties of some goodness-of-fit tests," Working Paper CRENoS 200209, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    31. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    32. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    33. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan, 2006. "A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-29, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    35. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    38. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
    39. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    40. Rodríguez, Julio, 2008. "A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084512, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    41. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.
    42. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    43. Amendola, Alessandra & Christian, Francq, 2009. "Concepts and tools for nonlinear time series modelling," MPRA Paper 15140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. André Binette & Dmitri Tchebotarev, 2017. "Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report," Staff Analytical Notes 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    46. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    47. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    48. Yim, Ha-Neul & Riddell, Jordan R. & Wheeler, Andrew Palmer, 2019. "Is the recent increase in national homicide abnormal? Testing the application of fan charts in monitoring national homicide trends over time," SocArXiv 7g32n, Center for Open Science.
    49. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.

  19. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Evaluation of global models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 980-989, November.
    2. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    3. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
    5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    6. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    7. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
    8. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Richter, Christian, 2004. "Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the dollar and other key currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1117-1144, December.
    9. Eika, Torbjorn & Magnussen, Knut A., 2000. "Did Norway gain from the 1979-1985 oil price shock?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 107-137, January.
    10. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    12. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Armand-Denis Schor, 1998. "The International Role of the Euro," Working Papers 1998-03, CEPII research center.
    13. Peeters, Marga, 1999. "The Public-Private Savings Mirror and Causality Relations Among Private Savings, Investment, and (twin) Deficits: A Full Modeling Approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 579-605, September.
    14. Douven, Rudy & Peeters, Marga, 1998. "GDP-spillovers in multi-country models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 163-195, April.
    15. van Els, Peter J. A. & Morgan, Julian & Locarno, Alberto & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 94, European Central Bank.
    16. Frank Bohn, 2005. "Maastricht criteria versus stability pact," Working Papers 200506, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele, 2023. "The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 552-569.
    18. Peter McAdam, 1998. "A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models," Studies in Economics 9807, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. A J Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2001. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits: A Stochastic Analysis of the Stability Pact," Studies in Economics 0101, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

  20. Church, Keith B. & Mitchell, Peter R. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1996. "Targeting inflation: Comparative control exercises on models of the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 169-184, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Policy instruments to avoid output collapse: an optimal control model for India," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 761-776.

  21. Church, Keith B & Smith, Peter N & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1994. "Econometric Evaluation of Consumers' Expenditure Equations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 71-85, Summer.

    Cited by:

    1. Byung Yeon Kim, 1997. "Soviet Household Saving Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 181-203, May.
    2. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    3. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    4. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
    5. Lee, Seungyoon, 2023. "House prices, homeownership, and household consumption: Evidence from household panel data in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Church, Keith B. & Curram, Stephen P., 1996. "Forecasting consumers' expenditure: A comparison between econometric and neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 255-267, June.
    7. Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    9. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. David Begg & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1998. "Swinging since the 60's: Fluctuations in UK Saving and Lessons for Latin America," Research Department Publications 3032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Williams, Geoffrey, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Financial Liberalization: The Case of United Kingdom Consumption," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-197, April.
    12. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.

  22. Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1991. "Macro-models and Macro Policy in the 1980s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 118-127, Autumn.

    Cited by:

    1. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    2. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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    1. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    2. Douven, R. C. & Plasmans, J. E. J., 1996. "SLIM, a small linear interdependent model of eight EU-member states, the USA and Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-233, April.
    3. Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Nov 2006.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hukkinen, Juhana & Virén, Matti, 1996. "Assessing the forecasting performance of a macroeconomic model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1996, Bank of Finland.
    6. Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.

  24. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.

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    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 301, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 03, October –.
    9. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    10. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
    11. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    12. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    13. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança, 2012. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7," GEE Papers 0047, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Apr 2012.
    14. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
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    17. Palle S Andersen & William L Wascher, 2001. "Understanding the recent behaviour of inflation: an empirical study of wage and price developments in eight countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 267-302, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
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    23. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
    24. Verbeek, Jos, 1999. "The World Bank's Unified Survey projections : how accurate are they? an ex-post evaluation of US91-US97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2071, The World Bank.
    25. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Husebo, Tore Anders & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1999. "Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 515-544, December.
    26. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    27. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    28. Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
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    32. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
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    34. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
    35. Grömling, Michael, 2002. "Konjunkturprognosen: Methoden, Risiken und Treffsicherheiten," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 18-26.
    36. Alexandre Mathis & Andrew Brociner, 1994. "Retour vers le futur. Une analyse rétrospective des prévisions de MOSAÏQUE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 207-228.
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    38. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança & João C. Fonseca, 2011. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components," GEE Papers 0041 Classification-C52, , Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2011.
    39. Smith, Ron, 1998. "Emergent policy-making with macroeconometric models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 429-442, July.
    40. Binder, Carola Conces & Wetzel, Samantha, 2018. "The FOMC versus the staff, revisited: When do policymakers add value?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 72-75.
    41. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    42. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
    43. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    44. Didier Borowski & Carine Bouthevillain & Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange & Pierre Morin, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
    45. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
    46. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
    47. Enrico Tanuwidjaja & Choy Keen Meng, 2005. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy : Evidence from Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of Indonesia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22576, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    48. Catherine Doz, 1993. "Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 129-133.
    49. Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange, 1992. "Modèles VAR et prévisions à court terme," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 109-122.
    50. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
    51. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    53. Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
    54. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.

  25. Turner, David S & Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1989. "Differences in the Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models: The Role of Labour Market Specifications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 317-344, Oct.-Dec..

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    1. Ingvild Svendsen, 1999. "Female labour participation rates in Norway - trends and cycles," Discussion Papers 253, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.

  26. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1988. "Some Recent Developments in Macroeconometric Modelling in the United Kingdom," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 7-25, Supplemen.

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    1. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  27. Kenneth F. Wallis & John D. Whitley, 1987. "Long-Run Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 207-224.

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    1. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-199, Supplemen.
    2. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
    3. Deleau Michel & Le Van Cuong & Malgrange Pierre, 1987. "Long terme des modèles macroéconométriques (le)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8729, CEPREMAP.
    4. Simes, Richard M, 1988. "Macroeconometric Model Evaluation, with Special Reference to the NIF88 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 29-56, Supplemen.
    5. Peter McAdam, 1998. "A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models," Studies in Economics 9807, School of Economics, University of Kent.

  28. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1987. "Time Series Analysis Of Bounded Economic Variables," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 115-123, January.

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    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Dimitrios Bakas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2023. "Labor Reallocation and Unemployment Fluctuations: A Tale of Two Tails," Working Paper series 23-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2010:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2014. "Asymmetry and Lilien’s Sectoral Shifts Hypothesis: A Quantile Regression Approach," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 6(1), pages 68-86, June.
    5. Brantley Liddle, 2013. "The Energy, Economic Growth, Urbanization Nexus Across Development: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Estimates Robust to Cross-Sectional Dependence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(2), pages 223-244, April.
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & S.G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Faculty Working Papers 10/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    8. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2007. "Nonlinearity In The Canadian And U.S. Labor Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 613-637, November.
    9. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.
    10. Sakata, Kei & McKenzie, Colin, 2004. "The accumulation of human capital and the sectoral shifts hypothesis for different age groups," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 459-465.
    11. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Forecasting obesity trends in England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(1), pages 107-117, January.
    12. Bishai, David & Opuni, Marjorie & Poon, Andrew, 2007. "Does the level of infant mortality affect the rate of decline?: Time series data from 21 countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 74-81, March.
    13. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    14. Dimitrios Bakas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2017. "Regional And Sectoral Evidence Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Labor Reallocation: A Panel Data Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 501-526, January.
    15. D'Amuri, Francesco/FD & Marcucci, Juri/JM, 2009. ""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," MPRA Paper 18248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dirk Mevis, 2012. "The Determinants of Short Term Funding in Luxembourgish Banks," BCL working papers 80, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2020. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Working Paper series 20-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    18. De-Chih Liu, 2014. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates in US: Evidence from Regional Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 447-455, April.
    19. Yousef Makhlouf, 2018. "Trends in income inequality," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2018/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    20. Don Harding, 2020. "Econometric Foundations of the Great Ratios of Economics," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-300, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    21. Yousef Makhlouf, 2023. "Trends in Income Inequality: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 213-243, January.
    22. T. Panagiotidis & G. Pelloni, 2013. "Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Revisited: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers wp881, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    23. Meredith J. Beechey & Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2008. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," International Finance Discussion Papers 953, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Hassler Uwe & Wolters Jürgen, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates? A Comparison between Germany and the US," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 119-129, April.
    25. Terence Mills, 2010. "Forecasting compositional time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 673-690, June.
    26. Dimitrios Bakas & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2014. "Unemployment by Gender: Evidence from EU Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 103-111, February.
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    28. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    29. Božidar Popović & Saralees Nadarajah & Miroslav Ristić, 2013. "A new non-linear AR(1) time series model having approximate beta marginals," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 76(1), pages 71-92, January.

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    1. Palle S. Andersen, 1991. "Labour market developments in developing countries," BIS Working Papers 16, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Stephen Bazen, 1990. "On the Employment Effects of Introducing a National Minimum Wage in the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 215-226, July.
    3. Douven, Rudy & Peeters, Marga, 1998. "GDP-spillovers in multi-country models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 163-195, April.

  30. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1984. "Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 350-359, October.
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    1. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1990. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, October.
    2. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Papers 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  32. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.

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    1. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 343, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
    3. Driskill, Robert A. & Sheffrin, Steven M., 1982. "Some Evidence In Favor Of A Monetary Model Of Exchange Rate Determination," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279142, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Majid Al-Sadoon & Piotr Zwiernik, 2019. "The identification problem for linear rational expectations models," Economics Working Papers 1669, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Seale, James L. & Shonkwiler, J. S., 1987. "Rationality, Price Risk, and Response," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 111-118, July.
    8. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value," Working Papers 2006-061, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Gary Koop & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 300-314, July.
    10. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Pagoulatos, Emilio & Azzam, Azzeddine & Kitazawa, Motoichiro, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Forward Premium in the International Corn Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 17(3), pages 335-347.
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    13. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
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    21. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    23. Shonkwiler, John Scott & Hinckley, Suzanne, 1985. "A Generalized Supply Response/Factor Demand Model And Its Application To The Feeder Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, December.
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    32. Joaquin Alfredo-Angel Rubalcaba & José R. Bucheli & Camila Morales, 2024. "Immigration enforcement and labor supply: Hispanic youth in mixed-status families," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-38, June.
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    35. Luc Anselin, 1988. "Model Validation in Spatial Econometrics: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Approaches," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 11(3), pages 279-316, December.
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    37. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1991. "Endogenous Risk in a Rational-Expectation Model of the U.S. Broiler Market: A Multivariate Arch-M Approach," Staff Papers 200538, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    38. Zant, Wouter, 1997. "Stabilizing prices in commodity markets: Price bounds versus private stockholding," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 253-277, June.
    39. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    40. Willem H. Buiter, 1981. "Macroeconometric Modelling for Policy Evaluation and Design," NBER Technical Working Papers 0013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Ghatak S. & Seale J., 2001. "Rice, Risk and Rationality: Supply Response in West Bengal, India," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 155-155, July - De.
    42. Torok, Steven John, 1982. "International trade in commodities and labor: the case of the importation of Mexican agricultural labor and fresh market winter tomatoes into the US, 1964-1979," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800008550, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    46. Broze, Laurence & Gourieroux Christian & Szafarz A, 1986. "Reduction and identification of simultaneous equations models with rational expectations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8601, CEPREMAP.
    47. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.
    48. Roger J. Bowden, 1990. "Predictive Disequilibria and the Short Run Dynamics of Asset Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 65-87, June.
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    50. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "References," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 159-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Thraen, Cameron S., 1982. "Rational Expectations and Agricultural Policy: An Econometric Application to the U.S. Dairy Economy," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    54. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    55. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per & Dahlberg, Matz, 2003. "An Empirical Approach for Evaluating Soft Budget Constraints," Working Paper Series 2003:28, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    56. Duo Qin, 2010. "Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 661, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    57. Roshan Sedhain & S. Shijin, 2023. "Expectations and Stock Market in Nepal," Vision, , vol. 27(5), pages 671-679, November.
    58. Antonovitz, Frances & Green, Richard, 1987. "Discriminating Among Fed Beef Expectations Models Using Non-Nested Testing Procedures," Working Papers 225806, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    59. Jean-Paul Azam, 1982. "L'impact macroéconomique de la politique commerciale en déséquilibre : le rôle des importations de biens intermédiaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1114.
    60. da Silva, J.A.B.B. & Young, T., 1984. "Distortions of Agricultural Incentives: An Analysis of the Effects of Government Policy on the Brazilian Beef and Dairy Sectors," Manchester Discussion Papers in Development Studies 232617, University of Manchester, School of Economics, International Development Centre.
    61. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    62. Hui-Kuan Tseng, 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability and Exchange Market Intervention: Spot vs. Forward," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16.
    63. Filippo Altissimo & Alberto Locarno & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "Dealing with forward-looking expectations and policy rules in quantifying the channels of transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    64. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault E, 1985. "Testing unknown linear restrictions on parameter functions," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8516, CEPREMAP.
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    66. Michael W. M. Roos & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012. "The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 196-210, May.
    67. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1990. "The rational expectations hypothesis in models of primary commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 384, The World Bank.
    68. Flôres Jr., Renato G. & Szafarz, Ariane, 1994. "Agents, Econometricians and the Identification of Rational Expectations Systems," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 14(1), April.
    69. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association.
    70. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    71. Willett, Lois Schertz, 1991. "An Application Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis In The U.S. Beekeeping Industry," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, October.
    72. Taremi, Mohammad & Esksndari, Farzad & Bameni Moghadam, Mohammad, 2016. "Identifiability of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with Covariance Restrictions," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(3), pages 225-243, July.
    73. von Witzke, Harald & Hausner, Ulrich, 1993. "A Public Choice Analysis Of U.S. Producer Price Support In Wheat And Corn: Implications For Agricultural Trade And Policy," Staff Papers 13475, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    74. Garcia, Raúl, 1989. "Combined Tests of The Fisher and Expectation Hypothesis," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 9(1), April.
    75. M. Suresh Babu, 2002. "Economic reforms and entry barriers in Indian manufacturing," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 331, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    76. Hazard, Suzanne & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1984. "The Use of Expectations In Agricultural Supply Response," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278895, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    77. Fisher, Brian S., 1983. "Rational Expectations In The Australian Wool Industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(3), pages 1-9, December.
    78. Lopez, Rigoberto A. & Munoz, Arnold O., 1987. "Supply Response In The Northeastern Fresh Tomato Market," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
    79. Fei Tan, 2017. "Interpreting rational expectations econometrics via analytic function approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1182-1190.

  33. W.‐Y. T. Chan & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1978. "Multiple Time Series Modelling: Another Look at the Mink‐Muskrat Interaction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 27(2), pages 168-175, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Luati, Alessandra & Proietti, Tommaso, 2009. "Hyper-spherical and Elliptical Stochastic Cycles," MPRA Paper 15169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.

  34. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1977. "Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1481-1497, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Working Papers 0619, Banco de España.
    2. E. Philip Howrey, 1980. "The Role of Time Series Analysis in Econometric Model Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 275-307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cubadda, G. & Hecq, A.W. & Palm, F.C., 2007. "Studying co-movements in large multivariate models without multivariate modelling," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    5. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    6. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    7. Palm, F.C., 1981. "Structural econometric modelling and time series analysis towards an integrated approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0004, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. D.S. Poskitt, 2009. "Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm, 2008. "Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling," CEIS Research Paper 125, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
    10. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D S, 1996. "Specification of Echelon-Form VARMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, January.
    11. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    13. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    14. Shonkwiler, J.S. & Spreen, T.H., 1986. "Bootstrapping The Hog Cycle," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    16. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," Discussion Papers 394, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Antoni Espasa & Daniel Peña, 1990. "Los modelos Arima, el estado de equilibrio en variables económicas y su estimación," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, May.
    18. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Miller, Stephen E., 1982. "Predicting Time Series Turning Points with Arima Models," Working Papers 116869, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    20. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    21. Gianluca Cubadda & Umberto Triacca, 2011. "An Alternative Solution to the Autoregressivity Paradox in Time Series Analysis," CEIS Research Paper 184, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jan 2011.
    22. Anna Mikusheva & Mikkel S{o}lvsten, 2023. "Linear Regression with Weak Exogeneity," Papers 2308.08958, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    23. Poskitt, D.S., 2016. "Vector autoregressive moving average identification for macroeconomic modeling: A new methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 468-484.
    24. Emre Kahraman & Gazanfer Unal, 2016. "Multiple Wavelet Coherency Analysis and Forecasting of Metal Prices," Papers 1602.01960, arXiv.org.
    25. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2008. "On the dynamic relationship of exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: an impulse-response analysis by local projections," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1141-1145.
    26. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2007. "General-to-specific or specific-to-general modelling? An opinion on current econometric terminology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 319-324, January.
    27. Weaver, Robert D. & Stefanou, Spiro E., 1984. "Toward A Behavioral Approach To Modelling Dynamic Production Choice Structures," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, October.
    28. Haraldsen, Kristine Wika & Ragnar, Nymoen & Sparrman, Victoria, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Memorandum 6/2019, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    29. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1981. "The Hog Cycle Revisited," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    31. John McDonald, 1979. "A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(4), pages 575-601, November.
    32. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    33. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    34. Kristine Wika Haraldsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Discussion Papers 901, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

  35. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1972. "Testing for Fourth Order Autocorrelation in Qtrly Regression Equations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(4), pages 617-636, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Neifar, Malika, 2004. "Méthodes d’inférence exactes pour un modèle de régression avec erreurs AR(2) gaussiennes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(4), pages 593-618, Décembre.
    2. Chris M. Alaouze & John S. Marsden & John Zeitsch, 1977. "Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution Between Imported and Domestically Produced Commodities at the Four Digit ASIC Level," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-11, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Neifar, Malika, 2002. "Méthodes d’inférence exactes pour des processus autorégressifs : une approche fondée sur des tests induits," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(1), pages 19-40, Mars.
    4. Mahmood, Talat, 1990. "Die Dynamik der Rentabilität als stochastischer Prozess: eine empirische Zeitreihenanalyse von ausgewählten deutschen und amerikanischen Unternehmen. Vom Fachbereich 20 Informatik der Technischen Univ," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 112236, March.
    5. Peter Dawkins & Mark Wooden, 1985. "Labour Utilization and Wage Inflation in Australia: An Empirical Examination," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(2), pages 516-521, June.
    6. John J. Beggs, 1988. "Diagnostic Testing in Applied Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 81-101, June.
    7. George Babich & John Goodhew, 1978. "Short Term Econometric Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 54(2), pages 229-236, August.
    8. Roberts, Roland K., 1985. "Transportation Costs In Econometric Models Of State Agricultural Sectors: The Case Of Beef In Hawaii," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, July.
    9. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Erum Toor & Tanweer Ul Islam, 2019. "Power Comparison of Autocorrelation Tests in Dynamic Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 58-69, September.

  36. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1969. "Some Recent Developments in Applied Econometrics: Dynamic Models and Simultaneous Equation Systems," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 771-796, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Rambaldi, Sandro & Pinazza, Ombretta, 1994. "An accurate fractional Brownian motion generator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 21-30.
    2. Jean-François Goux, 1983. "La dynamique de l'accumulation réelle des ménages," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 182-235.
    3. Steib, Steve B., 1972. "The Euro-dollar market as a source of United States bank liquidity," ISU General Staff Papers 197201010800006277, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Duncan, Ronald C., 1972. "Evaluating Returns To Research In Pasture Improvement," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Jin Seo Cho & Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2023. "Recent developments of the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 7-32, February.
    6. James Chan-Lee, 1980. "A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(1), pages 45-86, March.
    7. Arthur Goldberger, 1971. "Econometrics and psychometrics: A survey of communalities," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 36(2), pages 83-107, June.

Chapters

  1. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation And Evaluation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Roberto S Mariano & Yiu-Kuen Tse (ed.), Econometric Forecasting And High-Frequency Data Analysis, chapter 1, pages 1-51, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    Cited by:

    1. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017. "Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. A Bayesian approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series 82, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Coutiño, Alfredo, 2016. "Pitfalls in monetary policy decisions based on the output gap," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 54-64.

  2. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment and Multiple Time Series Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 347-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    3. Cholette, Pierre A., 1983. "La désaisonnalisation pour le non-spécialiste," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 59(1), pages 144-152, mars.
    4. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2014. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Javed I. Ahmed, 2014. "Competition in Lending and Credit Ratings," Working Papers 14-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. Richard M. Todd, 1989. "Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality," Staff Report 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

Books

  1. Kreps,David M. & Wallis,Kenneth F. (ed.), 1997. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589826, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Jamie Emerson & Chihwa Kao, 2005. "Bootstrapping and hypothesis testing in non-stationary panel data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 313-318.
    2. Nahuis, Richard & Smulders, Sjak, 2002. "The Skill Premium, Technological Change and Appropriability," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 137-156, June.
    3. Moundigbaye, Mantobaye & Messemer, Clarisse & Parks, Richard W. & Reed, W. Robert, 2019. "Bootstrap methods for inference in the Parks model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Scott Barrett & Astrid Dannenberg, 2015. "Tipping versus Cooperating to Supply a Public Good," CESifo Working Paper Series 5274, CESifo.
    5. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2003. "Innovation, imitation, and growth with cumulative technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 361-380, March.
    6. Gerald Marschke & Pascal Courty, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation of Gaming Responses to Performance Incentives," Discussion Papers 00-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    7. Degryse, H.A. & Ongena, S., 2000. "Bank Relationship and Firm Profitability," Other publications TiSEM 30c809d0-5953-4269-94d5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Drew Fudenberg, 2006. "Advancing Beyond Advances in Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 694-711, September.
    9. Todd W. Allen & Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "Individual Learning About Consumption," NBER Working Papers 8234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Symeonidis, George, 2001. "Price Competition, Innovation and Profitability: Theory and UK Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Thorsten Beck & Luc Laeven, 2006. "Institution building and growth in transition economies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 157-186, June.
    12. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2008. "Do Interest Groups Affect U.S. Immigration Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2008/244, International Monetary Fund.
    13. MacLeod, W. Bentley, 2011. "Great Expectations: Law, Employment Contracts, and Labor Market Performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 18, pages 1591-1696, Elsevier.
    14. Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1997. "Patterns, Types, and Bayesian Learning," Discussion Papers 1177, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    15. Robin P. Cubitt & Robert Sugden, 2011. "Common reasoning in games: A Lewisian analysis of common knowledge of rationality," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science (CBESS) 11-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    16. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Household income dynamics in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2706, The World Bank.
    17. Robin P. Cubitt & Robert Sugden, 2008. "Common reasoning in games," Discussion Papers 2008-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.

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