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On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the Bank of Canada are consistent with an asymmetric loss function. Current-year projections provide no signs of asymmetry, but next-year projections do. The hypothesis of rationality of the projections can be rejected under symmetric loss, but not under asymmetric loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:155-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201302, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    3. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
    4. Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.
    5. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2022. "Evaluating plant managers’ production plans over business cycles: asymmetric loss and rationality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
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    8. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012. "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 601-603.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank; Forecasting; Loss function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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