Solving the Forecast Combination Puzzle
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- David T. Frazier & Ryan Covey & Gael M. Martin & Donald Poskitt, 2023. "Solving the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Papers 2308.05263, arXiv.org.
References listed on IDEAS
- Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Estimation When a Parameter Is on a Boundary," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1341-1384, November.
- Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, June.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Thompson, Ryan & Qian, Yilin & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2024.
"Flexible global forecast combinations,"
Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
- Ryan Thompson & Yilin Qian & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2022. "Flexible global forecast combinations," Papers 2207.07318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2019. "Robust optimization of forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 910-926.
- Jarle Aarstad & Olav Andreas Kvitastein & Stig-Erik Jakobsen, 2019. "What Drives Enterprise Product Innovation? Assessing How Regional, National, And International Inter-Firm Collaboration Complement Or Substitute For R&D Investments," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(05), pages 1-25, June.
- Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014.
"Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program,"
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
- Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2009.
"Indirect estimation of [alpha]-stable stochastic volatility models,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2298-2308, April.
- Marco Lombardi & Giorgio Calzolari, 2006. "Indirect estimation of alpha-stable stochastic volatility models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Young-Joo Kim & Myung Hwan Seo, 2017. "Is There a Jump in the Transition?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 241-249, April.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006.
"Housing Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Chang, Yoosoon, 2004.
"Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
- Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1251, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Working Papers 2000-01, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1585, Econometric Society.
- Dimitriadis, Timo & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2021. "Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 604-621.
- Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2015.
"Linear Regression for Panel With Unknown Number of Factors as Interactive Fixed Effects,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(4), pages 1543-1579, July.
- Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2013. "Linear regression for panel with unknown number of factors as interactive fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP49/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Hyungsik Roger Moon & Martin Weidner, 2014. "Linear regression for panel with unknown number of factors as interactive fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Iglesias Emma M., 2011. "Constrained k-class Estimators in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, September.
- Bhattacharya, Debopam & Dupas, Pascaline, 2012.
"Inferring welfare maximizing treatment assignment under budget constraints,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 168-196.
- Debopam Bhattacharya & Pascaline Dupas, 2008. "Inferring Welfare Maximizing Treatment Assignment under Budget Constraints," NBER Working Papers 14447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ekaterina Oparina & Sorawoot Srisuma, 2022.
"Analyzing Subjective Well-Being Data with Misclassification,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 730-743, April.
- Ekaterina Oparina & Sorawoot Srisuma, 2019. "Analyzing Subjective Well-Being Data with Misclassification," Papers 1905.06037, arXiv.org.
- Oparina, Ekaterina & Srisuma, Sorawoot, 2022. "Analyzing subjective well-being data with misclassification," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Sauer, J., 2007. "Monotonicity and Curvature – A Bootstrapping Approach," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 42, March.
- Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015.
"Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-596, May.
- Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2010. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2010. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions," NBER Working Papers 16438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhu, Hongtu & Zhang, Heping, 2006. "Asymptotics for estimation and testing procedures under loss of identifiability," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 19-45, January.
- Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Ben, Youhong & Jiang, Feiyu, 2020. "A note on Portmanteau tests for conditional heteroscedastistic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
- Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015.
"Optimal combination of survey forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
- Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2020.
"Learning from Forecast Errors: A New Approach to Forecast Combination,"
Working Papers
202024, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2020. "Learning from Forecast Errors: A New Approach to Forecast Combinations," Papers 2011.02077, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
- Julio A. Crego & Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Brexit: Cyclical dependence in market neutral hedge funds," Working Papers 2141, Banco de España.
More about this item
Keywords
optimal forecast combinations; tests for forecast accuracy; probabilistic forecasting; scoring rules; SℰP500 forecasting; one-step versus two-step estimation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2023-12-04 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2023-12-04 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2023-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Professor Xibin Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.