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Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey

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  • Timur Hulagu
  • Saygin Sahinoz

Abstract

This study uses inflation expectation errors to measure inflation uncertainty in Turkey by analyzing the CBRT Survey of Expectations data and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Results reveal the importance of the inflation targeting regime. In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty for the 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the full-fledged inflation targeting regime after 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2012. "Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 53-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:12:y:2012:i:1:p:53-62
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2012/Volume+12-1/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
    6. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Uncertainty; Disagreement; Survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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