IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v131y2024ics0148619524000274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Montes, Gabriel Caldas
  • do Nascimento Valladares, Matheus

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil, and it seeks to identify which uncertainties have the greatest impact on loan loss provisions. Regarding uncertainties, it is possible to proxy economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty through disagreements among professional forecasters and through news-based proxies. Thus, as a novelty, disagreements among professional forecasters are used to proxy both economic and economic policy uncertainties, and for checking robustness, news-based proxies are employed. The disagreements in expectations are divided into two groups: the first focuses on uncertainties related to economic policy instruments (i.e., monetary policy interest rate and primary surplus), and the second on uncertainties related to economic outcomes (i.e., inflation, exchange rate, GDP growth, and public debt). Regarding the news-based proxies of economic policy uncertainty and economic uncertainty, two indicators were employed: the first is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, and the second is the index of economic uncertainty unrelated to economic policy that we calculate. Based on dynamic panel data analysis for 125 Brazilian banks, the findings suggest uncertainties in economic outcomes have greater influence on banking provisions than uncertainties in economic policy. The study validates the results using news-based indexes and a subsample representing the post-global financial crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Montes, Gabriel Caldas & do Nascimento Valladares, Matheus, 2024. "The effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0148619524000274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619524000274
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2024.106185?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    2. Cai, Peilin & Gan, Quan & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2018. "Do sovereign credit ratings matter for foreign direct investments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 50-64.
    3. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Ritz, Robert A. & Walther, Ansgar, 2015. "How do banks respond to increased funding uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-410.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    7. Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Capital Flows and Financial Sector Development in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 13, pages 431-466, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Cummings, James R. & Durrani, Kassim J., 2016. "Effect of the Basel Accord capital requirements on the loan-loss provisioning practices of Australian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 23-36.
    9. Jeffrey Ng & Walid Saffar & Janus Jian Zhang, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and loan loss provisions in the banking industry," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 726-777, June.
    10. Peterson K. Ozili & Erick Outa, 2017. "Bank loan loss provisions research: A review," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(3), pages 144-163, September.
    11. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Lamla, Michael J. & Wood, Andrew, 2019. "The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 222-240.
    12. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
    13. Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 660-698, August.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    16. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2019. "Bank’s risk measures and monetary policy: Evidence from a large emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-132.
    17. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2020. "Economic uncertainty in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-131.
    18. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, August.
    19. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    20. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    21. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    22. Pool, Sebastiaan & de Haan, Leo & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2015. "Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-136.
    23. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    24. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    25. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Antunes, José Américo Pereira, 2016. "How does capital regulation react to monetary policy? New evidence on the risk-taking channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-186.
    27. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    28. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    29. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2018. "Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 625-636.
    30. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Vereda, Luciano & Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo, 2022. "What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    31. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & de Hollanda Lima, Natalia Teixeira, 2022. "Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-222.
    32. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
    33. Gabriel Barros Tavares Peixoto & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Risk-Taking Channel, Bank Lendingchannel And The “Paradox Of Credibility”: Empirical Evidence For Brazil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 030, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    34. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    35. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    36. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2014. "Financial accounting in the banking industry: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 339-383.
    37. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
    38. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
    39. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    40. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2021. "Does economic uncertainty affect the soundness of banks? Evidence from emerging Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    41. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    42. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
    43. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    44. Krüger, Steffen & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "The impact of loan loss provisioning on bank capital requirements," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 114-129.
    45. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    46. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    47. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    48. Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2014. "The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-256.
    49. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Ozili, Peterson, 2021. "Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 923-935.
    50. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    51. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.
    52. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    54. Tran, Dung Viet & Houston, Reza, 2021. "The effects of policy uncertainty on bank loan loss provisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    55. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chuanhao Liu & Peng Cui & Hongxia Zhao & Zhanzhen Zhang & Yanshuo Zhu & Huijiao Liu, 2024. "Green Finance, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Corporate ESG Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    2. Dang, Van Dan & Dang, Van Cuong, 2020. "The conditioning role of performance on the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy: Evidence from a multiple-tool regime," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2018. "Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 625-636.
    4. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2019. "Bank’s risk measures and monetary policy: Evidence from a large emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-132.
    5. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Costa, Ágata, 2023. "Credit behavior and financial stability in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    7. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Igor Mendes Marcelino, 2023. "Uncertainties and disagreements in expectations of professional forecasters: Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 937-956, July.
    10. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries," Working Papers Series 575, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas, 2024. "The role of loan loss provisions in income inequality: Evidence from a sample of banking institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    15. Raffaela Casciello & Marco Maffei & David A. Ziebart, 2024. "Regulatory and contextual factors influencing earnings and capital management decisions: evidence from the European banking sector," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 87-146, July.
    16. Gabriel C Montes & Caio F Ferreira, 2022. "Monetary policy opacity and disagreements in expectations about variables under central bank control," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 703-721.
    17. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2024. "Are prudent monetary and fiscal policy drivers of FDI inflows?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    18. Claudio Oliveira De Moraes & José Americo Pereira Antunes & Adriano Rodrigues, 2019. "Financial intermediation analysis from financial flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(3), pages 727-747, August.
    19. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    20. Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 660-698, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Provisions; Disagreement in expectations; Economic uncertainty; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0148619524000274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.