IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v172y2009i1p107-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting obesity trends in England

Author

Listed:
  • Terence C. Mills

Abstract

Summary. Forecasts of trends in obesity in England for 2010 are produced by treating the available data, which contain the proportions of the population, categorized by age and sex, falling into different body mass index ranges, as compositional data sets, so that the implicit simplex restrictions are automatically satisfied. Forecasts are calculated by using linear trend models for the log‐ratio transformations and are accompanied by prediction regions. The advantages of treating data on proportions compositionally are emphasized and compared with forecasts that have been obtained by ignoring this restriction.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Forecasting obesity trends in England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(1), pages 107-117, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:172:y:2009:i:1:p:107-117
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00550.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00550.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00550.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Huiwen & Liu, Qiang & Mok, Henry M.K. & Fu, Linghui & Tse, Wai Man, 2007. "A hyperspherical transformation forecasting model for compositional data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 459-468, June.
    2. Jane Fry & Tim Fry & Keith McLaren, 2000. "Compositional data analysis and zeros in micro data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 953-959.
    3. Abadir, Karim M. & Talmain, Gabriel, 2005. "Autocovariance functions of series and of their transforms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 227-252, February.
    4. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "Why Have Americans Become More Obese?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 93-118, Summer.
    5. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1987. "Time Series Analysis Of Bounded Economic Variables," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 115-123, January.
    6. Zagorsky, Jay L., 2005. "Health and wealth: The late-20th century obesity epidemic in the U.S," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 296-313, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Dawson & Paul Downward & Terence C. Mills, 2014. "Olympic news and attitudes towards the Olympics: a compositional time-series analysis of how sentiment is affected by events," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 1307-1314, June.
    2. Kemp, Gordon C.R. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012. "Regression towards the mode," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 92-101.
    3. Duncan, Roberto & Toledo, Patricia, 2018. "Long-run overweight levels and convergence in body mass index," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 26-39.
    4. Sarah Brown & William Greene & Mark Harris, 2020. "A novel approach to latent class modelling: identifying the various types of body mass index individuals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 983-1004, June.
    5. Zheng, Tingguo & Chen, Rong, 2017. "Dirichlet ARMA models for compositional time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 31-46.
    6. Duncan, Roberto & Toledo, Patricia, 2018. "Do overweight and obesity prevalence rates converge in Europe?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 482-493.
    7. Terence Mills, 2010. "Forecasting compositional time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 673-690, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Terence Mills, 2010. "Forecasting compositional time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 673-690, June.
    2. Maximilian D. Schmeiser, 2012. "The impact of long‐term participation in the supplemental nutrition assistance program on child obesity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 386-404, April.
    3. García Villar, Jaume & Quintana-Domeque, Climent, 2009. "Income and body mass index in Europe," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-83, March.
    4. Pieroni, Luca & Salmasi, Luca, 2010. "Body weight and socio-economic determinants: quantile estimations from the British Household Panel Survey," ISER Working Paper Series 2010-41, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Georgia S. Papoutsi & Andreas C. Drichoutis & Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr., 2013. "The Causes Of Childhood Obesity: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 743-767, September.
    6. John Cranfield & Kris Inwood & Les Oxley & Evan Roberts, 2017. "Long-Run Changes in the Body Mass Index of Adults in Three Food-Abundant Settler Societies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/15, University of Waikato.
    7. Powell, Lisa M. & Bao, Yanjun, 2009. "Food prices, access to food outlets and child weight," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 64-72, March.
    8. Anna Sanz de Galdeano, 2007. "An Economic Analysis of Obesity in Europe: Health, Medical Care and Absenteeism Costs," Working Papers 2007-38, FEDEA.
    9. Ikeda, Shinsuke & Kang, Myong-Il & Ohtake, Fumio, 2010. "Hyperbolic discounting, the sign effect, and the body mass index," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 268-284, March.
    10. Classen, Timothy J., 2010. "Measures of the intergenerational transmission of body mass index between mothers and their children in the United States, 1981-2004," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 30-43, March.
    11. M. Templ & K. Hron & P. Filzmoser, 2017. "Exploratory tools for outlier detection in compositional data with structural zeros," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 734-752, March.
    12. Anura Amarasinghe & Gerard D'Souza & Cheryl Brown & Tatiana Borisova, 2006. "A Spatial Analysis of Obesity in West Virginia," Working Papers Working Paper 2006-13, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    13. Costa-Font, Joan & de Miera Juarez, Belen Saenz, 2018. "Working Times and Overweight: Tight Schedules, Weaker Fitness?," IZA Discussion Papers 11702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Jennifer M. Mellor, 2011. "Do cigarette taxes affect children's body mass index? The effect of household environment on health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 417-431, April.
    15. Kemp, Gordon C.R. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012. "Regression towards the mode," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 92-101.
    16. John Komlos, 2009. "Recent Trends in Height by Gender and Ethnicity in the US in Relation to Levels of Income," NBER Working Papers 14635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bonnet, Céline & Requillart, Vincent, 2010. "Is The Eu Sugar Policy Reform Likely To Increase Obesity?," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116414, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. repec:rre:publsh:v:39:y:2009:i:2:p:149-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Beghin, John C. & Jensen, Helen H., 2008. "Farm policies and added sugars in US diets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 480-488, December.
    20. Alberto Gago & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral López Otero, 2014. "A Panorama on Energy Taxes and Green Tax Reforms," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 208(1), pages 145-190, March.
    21. Chouinard, Hayley H & Davis, David E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2005. "The Effects of a Fat Tax on Dairy Products," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt60t1f3tn, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:172:y:2009:i:1:p:107-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.